TRN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TRN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TRN sees a +0.22% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.96% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.27%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TRN Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
629.40M
-21.12%
-21.21%
Gross Margin
24.63%
22.11%
16.07%
Operating Margin
14.84%
5.47%
8.72%
Net Margin
6.48%
-29.57%
26.81%
EPS
0.34
-55.26%
-8.11%
No Data Available
TRN Earnings Analysis
Trinity Industries Inc Corporation (TRN.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EPS Growth: Full-year adjusted EPS of $1.82 represents a 32% year-over-year increase, driven by higher lease rates and improved margin performance.
Strong Returns on Equity: Adjusted ROE of 14.6% was achieved, within the target range, indicating strong returns on equity.
Operational Cash Flow Increase: Cash flow from operations with net gains on lease portfolio sales reached $645 million, reflecting a 65% increase over 2023.
Leasing and Services Performance: Leasing and services segment generated revenues of $287 million in Q4, with an operating profit of $121 million and a margin of 42%.
Leasing Revenue Increase: Full-year leasing segment revenue increased by $102 million year-over-year to $1.1 billion, showcasing effective repricing of the lease fleet.
High Lease Fleet Utilization: Lease fleet utilization rate was 97%, indicating strong demand and effective asset management.
Renewal Success Rate Insights: Renewal success rate of 77% in Q4 suggests a balanced market allowing for continued pricing improvements.
Rail Products Profit Surge: Operating profit for the rail products segment increased by 68% compared to 2023, demonstrating operational efficiency.
Railcar Production Performance: Trinity delivered 3,760 railcars in Q4, totaling 17,570 for the year, indicating strong production capabilities.
Shareholder Value Commitment: The company returned $114 million to shareholders in 2024, reinforcing commitment to shareholder value through dividends and share repurchases.
Negative
Earnings Miss Reported: Trinity Industries, Inc. missed earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $0.342, falling short of the expected $0.38.
Projected Delivery Decline: The company anticipates a significant decrease in industry deliveries for 2025, projecting approximately 35,000 railcars, which is about 20% lower than 2024 deliveries.
Tariff Uncertainties Impacting Orders: There are ongoing uncertainties surrounding tariffs that are causing delays in customer investment decisions, which may further impact future orders and guidance.
Fleet Investment Shortfall: The net fleet investment for 2024 was only $181 million, significantly below the guidance range of $200 million to $300 million, indicating a potential shortfall in growth plans.
Projected Margin Decline: The company expects lower segment operating margins in 2025, with guidance suggesting margins between 38% and 41% for the leasing and services segment, reflecting a decrease from previous performance.
Effective Tax Rate Increase: The effective tax rate for 2025 is expected to rise to approximately 25% to 27%, which could impact net earnings.
Flat Revenue Environment: The company reported a flat revenue environment for the full year, indicating challenges in growth despite some improvements in operating profit.
TRN FAQs
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TRN Earning Call Sentiment
Trinity Industries, Inc. (NYSE:TRN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
TRN.N
-3.64%Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with a 32% increase in adjusted EPS and significant improvement in operating profit and margins. The increased dividend and share repurchases signal confidence in financial health. Despite uncertainties in backlog coverage and tariff impacts, management's optimistic outlook for the second half of 2025 and the ability to pass on costs mitigate concerns. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive prediction (2% to 8%) for the stock price over the next two weeks.
