TAC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TAC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TAC sees a -4.96% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.87% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +4.12%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TAC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
638.00M
-37.27%
9.62%
Gross Margin
39.34%
-31.02%
-24.94%
Operating Margin
17.40%
-60.85%
-38.25%
Net Margin
-3.45%
-108.37%
-130.42%
EPS
-0.12
-108.51%
-166.67%
No Data Available
TAC Earnings Analysis
TransAlta Corporation Corporation (TAC.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Operational Performance: 1. Strong Adjusted EBITDA: TransAlta reported an adjusted EBITDA of CAD325 million for Q3 2024, showcasing robust operational performance across its generating fleet and Energy Marketing segment.
Free Cash Flow Generation: 2. Significant Free Cash Flow: The company generated free cash flow of CAD140 million, or CAD0.47 per share, during the quarter, contributing to a year-to-date total of CAD521 million, or CAD1.72 per share.
Fleet Availability Performance: 3. High Fleet Availability: TransAlta achieved an average fleet availability of 94.5%, reflecting strong operational capabilities and reliability in its generation assets.
Share Repurchase Success: 4. Successful Share Repurchase Program: As of September 30, 2024, TransAlta returned CAD114 million to shareholders through share repurchases, representing approximately 75% of its CAD150 million target for the year.
Liquidity Strength and Flexibility: 5. Strong Liquidity Position: The company maintains over CAD1.8 billion in available liquidity, including approximately CAD400 million in cash, providing flexibility for capital allocation and strategic initiatives.
Negative
Alberta Spot Price Decline: 1. Declining Alberta Spot Prices: The average spot price in Alberta dropped to CAD 55 per megawatt hour in Q3 2024, significantly lower than CAD 152 per megawatt hour in the same period last year, indicating a challenging pricing environment.
Sundance Unit 6 Mothballing: 2. Mothballing Sundance Unit 6: TransAlta announced the mothballing of Sundance Unit 6 effective April 1, 2025, due to expected market weakness, which will defer significant sustaining capital expenditures and result in a loss of EBITDA contribution from the unit.
Rising Corporate Expenses: 3. Increased Corporate Costs: Corporate costs rose year-over-year primarily due to increased spending on the ERP upgrade program, indicating a strain on operational efficiency and cost management.
Increased Cash Tax Projections: 4. Higher Cash Taxes: Cash taxes are projected to increase by CAD 30 million to CAD 160 million for the year due to the exhaustion of loss carryforwards, leading to a higher effective tax rate going forward.
Hydro Segment Challenges: 5. Lower Hydro Segment Performance: The Hydro segment's adjusted EBITDA was CAD 89 million, which was broadly in line with expectations but reflected lower realized and ancillary spot prices, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market.
TAC FAQs
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TAC Earning Call Sentiment
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
TAC.N
-1.52%Positive
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: significant spot price declines and economic risks in Alberta negatively impact financial performance, but proactive hedging and a strong share repurchase program offer some positives. The Q&A section highlights uncertainties, particularly around emissions and data center opportunities, which could weigh on investor sentiment. The company's market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, as positive shareholder returns and liquidity are offset by market volatility and unclear management responses.
