AT&T Inc. (T) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with growth in consumer wireline and fiber revenues, improved EBITDA margins, and a reduction in net debt. The Q&A section indicates confidence in strategic initiatives and competitive positioning. While there are concerns about business wireline declines and vague management responses on leadership, the overall sentiment is positive, especially with increased guidance and share repurchase plans. The market is likely to react positively, expecting a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.

Key Financial Performance

Total revenues Grew 1.6% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA grew 2.4% and adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 30 basis points. Reasons for growth include operational efficiencies and strategic investments.

Adjusted EPS $0.54 in the quarter, consistent with the prior year. Excludes a gain recognized on the sale of the DIRECTV investment, legal settlement costs, and other items.

Free cash flow $4.9 billion versus $4.6 billion a year ago, reflecting strong cash generation and operational efficiencies.

Capital investment $5.3 billion, down $200 million year-over-year. Reflects strategic allocation of resources.

Mobility service revenue Grew 2.3% year-over-year. EBITDA growth of 2.2%. Prior year quarter included $90 million in one-time service revenues, impacting growth rates.

Postpaid phone net adds 405,000, up slightly from the third quarter of last year. Postpaid phone churn was 0.92%, up 14 basis points year-over-year due to increased marketplace activity and device financing periods ending.

Postpaid phone ARPU $56.64, consistent with a year ago when normalized for one-time service revenue impact. Growth in underpenetrated segments and converged customers influenced ARPU.

Consumer Wireline revenues Grew 4.1% year-over-year, driven by 16.8% growth in fiber revenue. EBITDA grew more than 15%, with margins expanding by 350 basis points due to top-line growth and cost reductions.

AT&T Fiber customers Added 288,000 during the quarter, reflecting seasonal tailwinds and fiber footprint expansion. Convergence rate reached 41.5%, up 180 basis points year-over-year.

AT&T Internet Air net adds 270,000, doubling subscriber gains year-over-year.

Business Wireline revenues Declined 7.8% year-over-year, while EBITDA declined about 13%. Fiber and Advanced Connectivity Service revenues grew 6% year-over-year, showing early traction in reinvestment efforts.

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 2.59x, down from 2.64x last quarter, reflecting strong cash generation and EBITDA growth.

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Operating Highlights

AT&T Fiber and Internet Air: Achieved over 550,000 new subscribers in Q3, marking the highest total broadband net adds in over 8 years. Reached over 10 million premium AT&T fiber subscribers, doubling the fiber customer base in less than 5 years.

5G and Fiber Connectivity: Continued investments in fiber and 5G, with plans to pass more than 60 million customer locations by 2030. Currently passed over 31 million locations with fiber.

Convergence Strategy: 41% of AT&T fiber households also choose AT&T for wireless, with a growing trend in convergence. Over half of Internet Air subscribers also choose AT&T for wireless.

Spectrum and Fiber Acquisitions: Planned acquisitions of spectrum licenses from EchoStar and fiber assets from Lumen to enhance connectivity portfolio. Deployment of 3.45 GHz spectrum to cover nearly 2/3 of the U.S. population by mid-November.

Operational Efficiencies: Reduced costs in customer support and service, contributing to EBITDA growth. Consumer Wireline EBITDA grew over 15% due to top-line growth and cost reductions.

Free Cash Flow: Generated $4.9 billion in Q3 free cash flow, up from $4.6 billion a year ago. Capital investment was $5.3 billion, down $200 million year-over-year.

Advanced Connectivity Goals: Aiming to lead the industry in retail connectivity service revenue by the end of the decade. Transitioning from legacy infrastructure to AI-ready connectivity.

Acquisition Strategy: Strategic acquisitions of EchoStar spectrum and Lumen fiber assets to accelerate growth and improve network efficiency.

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Risk or Challenges

Market Competition: Increased marketplace activity and elevated switching activity are leading to higher postpaid phone churn and increased costs of acquiring and retaining subscribers.

Regulatory and Policy Risks: The company's progress in deploying spectrum and transitioning away from legacy infrastructure is dependent on a supportive policy environment, which could change.

Economic Uncertainty: The company is managing through structural declines in legacy services, which could impact revenue stability in the Business Wireline segment.

Operational Costs: Higher equipment costs and acquisition-related expenses are impacting mobility operating expenses.

Seasonal Revenue Variability: Fiber net adds and ARPU are subject to seasonal patterns, which could lead to variability in revenue and customer acquisition.

Legacy Infrastructure Transition: The transition away from outdated legacy infrastructure requires significant investment and operational changes, posing execution risks.

Pending Acquisitions: The planned acquisitions of spectrum licenses from EchoStar and fiber assets from Lumen are subject to successful closure and integration, which could pose risks to timelines and expected benefits.

Customer Financing Risks: An increase in the portion of the customer base reaching the end of device financing periods could impact churn rates and revenue stability.

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Guidance & Outlook

Fiber Expansion: AT&T plans to reach more than 60 million customer locations with fiber by the end of 2030, up from the current 31 million locations.

Spectrum Deployment: The company expects to deploy mid-band licenses covering nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population by mid-November 2025, which will support the expansion of Internet Air and sales channels in 2026.

Acquisitions: AT&T plans to close its acquisition of fiber assets from Lumen and spectrum licenses from EchoStar in early 2026. These acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's advanced connectivity portfolio and boost organic growth in revenues and profitability.

Revenue Growth: The company expects full-year service revenue growth in the low single-digit range and adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% or better for 2025.

Free Cash Flow: AT&T anticipates full-year free cash flow in the low to mid $16 billion range for 2025, including approximately $4 billion in the fourth quarter.

Capital Investments: The company projects full-year capital investments in the range of $22 billion to $22.5 billion for 2025, with $7 billion to $7.5 billion expected in the fourth quarter.

Adjusted EPS: AT&T expects full-year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.97 to $2.07 for 2025, with results closer to the high end of this range.

Consumer Wireline Growth: The company expects full-year growth in consumer fiber broadband revenue in the mid- to high teens and Consumer Wireline EBITDA growth in the low to mid-teens range for 2025.

Business Wireline: AT&T anticipates a full-year decline in Business Wireline EBITDA in the low double-digit range for 2025.

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Shareholder Return Plan

Dividend Payments: During the third quarter, AT&T returned $3.5 billion to shareholders, which includes dividend payments. The company remains committed to its capital returns program.

Stock Repurchases: AT&T repurchased nearly $1.5 billion worth of stock in the third quarter, keeping the company on track to achieve its full-year target of $4 billion in buybacks.

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Key Q&A

Q:What is AT&T's strategy to address competition from other fiber expanders and the potential overlap in broadband services?

A:AT&T focuses on being smart and deliberate in its fiber build strategy, ensuring scalability and agility. The company aims to penetrate markets aggressively and deter competitors by signaling its presence. AT&T also recalibrates its plans when market conditions change and emphasizes being the first to build effectively. The company is confident in its ability to manage overlap and maintain market share through its brand and marketing position.

Q:How is AT&T managing its DSL base and transitioning to newer technologies?

A:AT&T is phasing out its legacy DSL infrastructure to reduce power consumption and maintenance costs. The company is replacing DSL with fixed wireless in areas where fiber is not being built or is delayed. AT&T is also offering more attractive converged offers to retain customers during the transition.

Q:What is AT&T's approach to marketing and segmenting its Internet services, including fiber and fixed wireless?

A:AT&T has shifted its messaging to focus on promoting 'Internet from AT&T' rather than specific technologies. The company uses targeted digital marketing to tailor offers based on geography and customer needs. AT&T ensures that Internet Air subscribers are not in fiber footprints and aims to optimize its marketing and operational strategies to drive profitability and customer satisfaction.

Q:How does AT&T plan to improve its mobility EBITDA margins despite competitive pressures?

A:AT&T expects overall company margin expansion through network modernization, reducing copper infrastructure, and driving convergence. The company aims to lower churn and improve acquisition efficiency by increasing the percentage of converged customers. These efforts are expected to enhance profitability over the next several years.

Q:What is AT&T's strategy to handle potential increased promotional activity in the wireless market?

A:AT&T focuses on convergence and acquiring accretive customers. The company believes in its strategy to drive down churn and increase profitability through deeper customer relationships. AT&T is prepared to adjust its tactics in response to competitive changes but remains confident in its current approach.

Q:What is AT&T's stance on ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) trends in wireless and broadband?

A:AT&T is targeting underpenetrated segments to grow service revenue, which may result in lower ARPU initially. The company focuses on maximizing overall service revenue and plans to implement pricing actions to contribute to growth. AT&T views this strategy as a feature of its business model rather than a drawback.

Q:What is AT&T's position on M&A and its focus for the next five years?

A:AT&T is focused on organic growth and operational improvements within its existing asset base. The company does not see a need for additional assets and aims to execute its current strategies effectively. AT&T is not actively pursuing M&A opportunities and is concentrating on internal priorities.

Q:What is AT&T's view on LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellites as competitors or complements to its services?

A:AT&T views LEO satellites as complementary to its services, particularly for IoT applications and areas where terrestrial solutions are less effective. The company is working with AST to develop direct-to-device satellite capabilities and sees LEO technology as an opportunity to enhance network resilience and innovation. However, AT&T believes that LEO satellites are unlikely to replace terrestrial networks due to capacity and performance limitations.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided directly addressing the question about AT&T's succession plan and potential leadership changes. The response was vague and focused on current operational priorities rather than providing specific details.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

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