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01/10 03:22
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call reveals a mixed sentiment. While there are positive aspects such as improved gross margin, strong operating cash flow, and optimism for certain products, there are also concerns. These include expected shipment declines, increased expenses, and a loss-making Q4. The Q&A highlights cautious optimism but also acknowledges challenges like market dynamics and specific product concerns. The company's market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors. Overall, the mixed signals and market cap lead to a neutral prediction for stock price movement over the next two weeks.
Depletions Decreased 3% year-over-year in the third quarter, compared to an overall beer industry decline of over 4% in volume. This was attributed to challenging macroeconomic conditions and consumer budget management.
Shipments Decreased 13.7% year-over-year in the third quarter, primarily due to declines in Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, and Samuel Adams brands, partially offset by growth in Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard brands.
Revenue Decreased 11.2% year-over-year in the third quarter due to lower volumes, partially offset by increased pricing and favorable product mix.
Gross Margin Increased to 50.8% in the third quarter, up 450 basis points year-over-year, marking the highest level since 2018. This was driven by procurement savings, improved brewery efficiencies, price increases, and favorable product mix, partially offset by inflationary and tariff costs.
Operating Cash Flow Generated over $230 million in the first 9 months of 2025, enabling investments in brands and share repurchases.
Advertising, Promotional, and Selling Expenses Increased $16.8 million or 11.3% year-over-year in the third quarter, primarily due to $20.9 million in increased brand media and local marketing investments, partially offset by lower freight costs.
General and Administrative Expenses Increased $1.1 million or 2.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, primarily due to increased salaries and benefit costs.
Internal Production Increased to 90% of domestic volume in the third quarter, compared to 66% in the same period last year, driven by process improvements and increased internal production capacity.
Obsolete Inventories Reduced by 28% year-to-date due to improved customer ordering and inventory management systems.
Sun Cruiser: Sun Cruiser has been well-received, becoming the fourth largest brand in the RTD spirits category. It has expanded distribution and is planned for further expansion in 2026. A new 19.2-ounce can format will be introduced nationally in early 2026.
Twisted Tea: Twisted Tea Light and Twisted Tea Extreme are growing, with plans to add a variety pack in early 2026. Advertising and promotional efforts are being increased to support the brand.
Truly Hard Seltzer: Truly Unruly, a high ABV offering, is gaining momentum. A new creative platform and sponsorships are being leveraged to improve brand relevance.
Angry Orchard: The brand has returned to growth, supported by increased investment and new sponsorships. A Halloween-themed campaign is currently being executed.
Beyond Beer Category: The company sees long-term growth opportunities in the beyond beer category, which represents over 85% of its volume. Younger and more diverse drinkers are driving this growth.
Margin Improvement: Gross margin reached 50.8% in Q3 2025, the highest since 2018, driven by procurement savings, improved brewery efficiencies, and product mix.
Internal Production: Internal production increased to 90% of domestic volume in Q3 2025, up from 66% in the same period last year.
Procurement Savings: Lower negotiated pricing on packaging and ingredients has offset inflationary impacts.
Advertising Investments: Increased advertising investments in brands like Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser to drive growth.
Local Market Activation: A new local market activation program is being implemented, including sponsorships, local radio, and grassroots events.
Macroeconomic Environment: Economic uncertainty and inflation are negatively impacting consumer demand, particularly among middle-income and Hispanic consumers. This has led to reduced retail traffic and fewer social occasions, affecting sales of key brands like Twisted Tea.
Industry Headwinds: The overall beer industry is facing declining volumes, with moderation trends and competition from hemp-derived beverages impacting demand and shelf space.
Twisted Tea Performance: Twisted Tea has experienced a decline in velocity, retail displays, and features, with dollar sales down 5% year-to-date. The brand is losing share in the FMB category, which is down 3% overall. Retailers are allocating more space to RTD spirits, further impacting Twisted Tea's performance.
Hispanic Consumer Challenges: Hispanic consumers, a significant portion of the Twisted Tea drinker base, are facing economic pressures, leading to lower buying rates and impacting the brand's volume performance.
RTD Spirits Competition: Retailers are prioritizing RTD spirits, which are seen as a key growth category, over traditional beer and FMBs. This shift is affecting shelf space and sales for brands like Twisted Tea.
Tariff Costs: Tariffs on materials, although lower than initially expected, continue to pose a cost challenge, impacting gross margins and earnings per share.
Hard Seltzer Decline: The Hard Seltzer category is declining as consumer preferences shift towards more premium RTD spirits-based beverages. Truly, a top brand in this category, is underperforming and losing relevance.
Seasonality and Volume Deleverage: The fourth quarter is expected to be the smallest revenue quarter with the lowest gross margin rate, compounded by volume deleverage and higher year-over-year shortfall fees.
Volume Guidance: The company expects volumes to be down mid-single digits for the year. Depletion trends for the first 42 weeks of 2025 have decreased 4% from 2024.
Price Increases: Price increases are expected to range between 1% and 2%.
Gross Margin Guidance: Gross margin guidance for the year is now 47% to 48%, up from 46% to 47.3% previously. Tariffs are expected to have an unfavorable impact of $9 million to $13 million, which is a gross margin headwind of 40 to 60 basis points.
Advertising Investments: Increases in advertising, promotional, and selling expenses are expected to range from $50 million to $60 million, up from the previous estimate of $30 million to $50 million.
EPS Guidance: Full year 2025 EPS guidance range is revised to $7.80 to $9.80, up from $6.72 to $9.54. Tariffs are expected to have an unfavorable impact of $0.60 to $0.80 on earnings per diluted share.
Capital Expenditure Guidance: Capital expenditure guidance for the full year 2025 is lowered to between $50 million and $70 million, with a portion of the reduction driven by timing.
Twisted Tea: Plans to refine pricing in certain markets and introduce an under $10 four-pack to address cost-conscious shoppers. Twisted Tea Light and Twisted Tea Extreme are expected to be growth drivers for the brand for the remainder of 2025 and beyond. A Twisted Tea Extreme variety pack is planned for early 2026.
Sun Cruiser: Plans to further expand Sun Cruiser in 2026 and launch an additional innovation brand. Sun Cruiser will be available in 19.2-ounce cans in New England this month, with a national rollout in early 2026.
Truly Hard Seltzer: Focus on improving Truly's brand message and relevance, promoting lead flavor wildberry, and building on the momentum of Truly Unruly. Truly will launch a U.S. soccer collector set of singles to promote the 2026 World Cup.
Angry Orchard: Focus on owning Halloween with themed advertising, promotions, packaging, and displays. Sponsorship of WWE Wrestling and other campaigns to drive growth.
Samuel Adams: Plans to launch limited edition packaging and promotions in early 2026 to celebrate America's 250th anniversary.
Dogfish Head: Plans to continue leveraging collaborations, such as the Grateful Dead beer collaboration, to drive growth.
Share Repurchase Program: The company repurchased over $160 million in shares year-to-date. During the 13-week period ended September 27, 2025, and the period from September 27, 2025, through October 17, 2025, the company repurchased shares in the amount of $50 million and $12.1 million, respectively. As of October 17, 2025, approximately $266 million remained on the $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization.
The earnings call reveals a mixed sentiment. While there are positive aspects such as improved gross margin, strong operating cash flow, and optimism for certain products, there are also concerns. These include expected shipment declines, increased expenses, and a loss-making Q4. The Q&A highlights cautious optimism but also acknowledges challenges like market dynamics and specific product concerns. The company's market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors. Overall, the mixed signals and market cap lead to a neutral prediction for stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary shows mixed sentiments: strong EPS growth and margin improvements are positive, but the Q&A reveals industry challenges and cautious guidance. The company faces headwinds in the beer market, with slow summer sales and macroeconomic pressures. While new product launches and margin enhancements are promising, the widened guidance range and lack of clear growth catalysts suggest uncertainty. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to see minimal movement, leading to a neutral sentiment rating.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with a 6.5% revenue increase and a significant gross margin improvement. Despite a minor depletion decrease, shipments rose 5.3%, and EPS more than doubled, indicating robust operational efficiency. The share repurchase program suggests confidence in long-term growth. However, concerns over consumer behavior changes and cost pressures from tariffs were noted. The Q&A provided optimism about future distribution and market share improvements. Given the company's mid-cap status, the positive financial metrics and strategic plans suggest a likely stock price increase in the 2% to 8% range.
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