Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: positive revenue growth guidance, strategic R&D investments, and strong patient support programs. However, concerns arise from management's vague responses about financial caps and lack of new data on trials. The anticipated profitability in 2027 and ongoing studies show potential, but uncertainties in trial outcomes and financial disclosures balance the sentiment, resulting in a neutral outlook.
Key Financial Performance
Total Revenue (Q3 2025) $160 million, representing 15% growth over Q3 2024 and 18% growth for the first 9 months of 2025 over the first 9 months of 2024.
Crysvita Revenue (Q3 2025) $112 million, with $57 million from North America, $47 million from Latin America and Turkey, and $8 million from Europe. This reflects continued growth in all regions.
Dojolvi Revenue (Q3 2025) $24 million, consistent with its expected steady growth trajectory.
Evkeeza Revenue (Q3 2025) $17 million, with demand continuing to build following the launch in territories outside of the United States.
Mepsevii Revenue (Q3 2025) $7 million, as the company continues to treat patients in this ultra-rare indication.
Operating Expenses (Q3 2025) $331 million, including R&D expenses of $216 million, SG&A expenses of $87 million, and cost of sales of $28 million. Noncash stock-based compensation was $37 million.
Net Loss (Q3 2025) $180 million or $1.81 per share.
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Debt Securities (as of September 30, 2025) $447 million, further strengthened by the $400 million raised through the Crysvita royalty transaction.
Net Cash Used in Operations (Q3 2025) $91 million for the quarter and $366 million for the first 9 months of 2025.
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Operating Highlights
GTX-102: Investigational antisense oligonucleotide for Angelman syndrome. The pivotal 48-week Aspire study completed enrollment with 129 patients and is expected to read out data in the second half of 2026. The Phase II/III Aurora study has dosed its first patient and will evaluate GTX-102 in additional ages and genotypes.
UX143: Treatment for osteogenesis imperfecta. Phase III Orbit and Cosmic studies are progressing well, with data expected around December or January. The drug shows promise in improving bone mineral density and reducing fractures.
DTX401: Treatment for Glycogen Storage Disease Type Ia. Final 96-week results from the pivotal GlucoGene study show significant reduction in cornstarch dependence and improved glucose control. Rolling BLA submission is underway and expected to complete next month.
UX111: Treatment for MPS IIIA. Interactions with the FDA are ongoing, and a BLA resubmission is planned for early 2026.
Crysvita: Strong growth in Latin America with 50 new start forms in Q3, leading to approximately 875 patients on commercial product. In the U.S. and Canada, underlying growth in new start forms and patients on reimbursed therapy continues. Expected revenue for 2025 is between $460 million and $480 million, representing 12%-17% growth over 2024.
Dojolvi: Steady growth with approximately 700 new start forms since launch in 2020, leading to 625 patients on reimbursed therapy. Expected revenue for 2025 is between $90 million and $100 million, representing 2%-14% growth over 2024.
Evkeeza: Commercialized outside the U.S. with 310 patients across 17 countries. Approximately 120 new patients added since the beginning of the year.
Financial Position: Received $400 million of nondilutive capital from OMERS through the sale of a portion of Crysvita royalties. Payments are deferred until January 2028, strengthening the balance sheet for upcoming pivotal data readouts.
Revenue Growth: Total revenue for 2025 is expected to be between $640 million and $670 million, representing 14%-20% growth over 2024. Q3 2025 revenue was $160 million, a 15% increase from Q3 2024.
Path to Profitability: Company aims to achieve full-year GAAP profitability by 2027, leveraging existing infrastructure for new product launches and maintaining financial discipline.
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Risk or Challenges
Financial Position: The company has a high cash burn rate, with $366 million used in operations for the first 9 months of 2025. While the $400 million financing strengthens the balance sheet, the reliance on royalty monetization could limit future revenue streams.
Clinical Trials: The success of late-stage clinical trials, such as those for UX143 and GTX-102, is critical. Any delays or negative outcomes could significantly impact the company's strategic objectives and financial performance.
Regulatory Approvals: The company faces regulatory hurdles, including addressing FDA observations for UX111 and completing the BLA submission for DTX401. Delays or rejections could hinder product launches and revenue growth.
Revenue Variability: Quarter-to-quarter revenue variability is expected, which could create challenges in financial forecasting and investor confidence.
Product Commercialization: The company is heavily reliant on the successful commercialization of its products, including Crysvita, Dojolvi, and Evkeeza. Any issues in market adoption, pricing negotiations, or reimbursement could adversely affect revenue.
Geographic Expansion: Challenges in navigating country-specific pricing negotiations and regulatory environments, particularly in the EMEA region, could delay or limit market access for products like Evkeeza.
Operational Costs: High operating expenses, including R&D and SG&A, could pressure profitability, especially if revenue growth does not meet expectations.
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Guidance & Outlook
Revenue Guidance for 2025: Total revenue is expected to be between $640 million and $670 million, representing 14% to 20% growth over 2024. Crysvita revenue is expected to be between $460 million and $480 million, representing 12% to 17% growth over 2024. Dojolvi revenue is expected to be between $90 million and $100 million, representing 2% to 14% growth over 2024.
Path to Profitability: The company reaffirms its path to full-year GAAP profitability in 2027.
Clinical Program Milestones: Top-line data for UX143 in osteogenesis imperfecta is expected in December 2025 or January 2026. Phase III data for GTX-102 in Angelman syndrome is expected in the second half of 2026. The rolling BLA submission for DTX401 is expected to be completed in December 2025, and the BLA resubmission for UX111 is planned for early 2026.
Product Launches and Approvals: The company is preparing for the potential launches of UX111 and DTX401, leveraging existing infrastructure to support these launches if approved.
Financial Position: The company has strengthened its financial position with $400 million in nondilutive capital from OMERS, with payments deferred until January 2028. This funding supports upcoming launches and growth initiatives.
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Shareholder Return Plan
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you walk us through the logic behind the timing of the data update for Orbit and Cosmic, and whether it will be shared at JPMorgan?
A:The data for both Cosmic and Orbit will be shared together, either in December or January. The timing depends on the cleaning process and database locking analysis, which introduces some variability.
Q:Can you provide more quantitative perspective on the open-label extension from the Phase II OI trial and the expected range of effect sizes on fracture reduction?
A:No new quantitative data is available from the Phase II trial. The expected range of fracture reduction in Phase III is between 40% and 70%, with 67% observed in Phase II. The focus is on how patients feel and function, which is considered more important than the exact percentage.
Q:Could you clarify the order of submissions for UX111 and 401 and the reasons behind it?
A:The order changed slightly, with 401 being submitted before UX111 due to timing of final reports and inspection facility requirements. The change is not fundamental but logistical.
Q:How close are you to the cap of the 1.45x in the OMERS transaction?
A:The company cannot disclose how they are tracking to the cap. The prior deal with OMERS has its own cap, and the new deal plus the additional 25% announced will have a combined cap of 1.55x the $400 million raised.
Q:How does the $400 million OMERS transaction address potential financing needs in 2026?
A:The financing bolsters the balance sheet and supports the pathway to profitability in 2027. It incorporates monetization of 3 PRVs and assumes continued double-digit growth from current products and contributions from launches.
Q:What are the scenarios if one of the Orbit or Cosmic studies is positive and the other is not?
A:If one study is positive and the other is not, the company believes there will still be enough data to support the full range of the indication. They are confident both studies are powered to succeed.
Q:How do physicians view initiating setrusumab in younger patients versus those with advanced disease?
A:Physicians are likely to prioritize younger patients with more severe disease (Type IIIs and IVs). However, the drug is expected to be used across the spectrum, including adults, as it addresses bone dysfunction and improves quality of life.
Q:What drove the increase in R&D expenses in the third quarter?
A:The increase was due to investments in prelaunch inventory and preparations for upcoming product launches.
Q:How does the commercial opportunity for OI compare to XLH?
A:The OI population is estimated to be 50% to 100% larger than XLH, with pricing expected to be similar to Crysvita. The OI opportunity is considered larger than the XLH program.
Q:How might patients and caregivers make treatment decisions in a competitive Angelman syndrome ASO landscape?
A:Decisions will likely be driven by potency, safety, and patient support programs rather than specific endpoints or dosing schedules. Ultragenyx emphasizes its strong patient support programs and expects its ASO to be competitive.
Q:How should we think about the enrollment curve for the Aurora study relative to the Aspire trial?
A:The Aurora study is expected to enroll quickly due to high patient interest and its open-label design, which contrasts with the sham-controlled Aspire trial.
Q:What is the expected length of treatment for setrusumab, and is there a role for bisphosphonates?
A:Setrusumab is expected to be a chronic treatment, maintaining bone health without the need for bisphosphonates, which are considered obsolete for OI due to their limitations and potential long-term issues.
Q:Have there been any statistical or study design changes post the second interim analysis for OI?
A:No changes have been made. The statistical plan remains in place, and all assumptions have been verified.
Q:What are the impacts if the Cosmic study misses while Orbit hits?
A:If Cosmic misses, the safety and bone mineral density data from younger patients will still support the label. Adoption is not expected to be significantly impacted as the overall data will drive confidence in the treatment.
Q:How do you determine when to monetize a mature product like Crysvita?
A:The decision is based on achieving meaningful proceeds at the lowest cost of capital. The Crysvita transaction was competitive and aimed to support multiple upcoming product launches.
Q:What will you need to see from the fourth cohort in the Wilson disease program to advance to future studies?
A:The goal is for the majority of patients to come off standard care (chelators and zinc). Dose increases and changes to immunomodulation are expected to enhance efficacy.
Q:What is the exclusivity outlook for setrusumab?
A:Setrusumab benefits from orphan designation, providing protection past 2030. Additional IP and discoveries related to treatment are expected to extend exclusivity.
Q:How is the rescue arm in the Orbit study factored into the statistical analysis plan?
A:Patients in the rescue arm are included in the analysis, with their annualized fracture rate estimated based on the time they were on the drug before rescue.
Q:What gives you confidence in the ongoing Aspire Angelman study?
A:The study design and patient population are consistent with the Phase II trial, which showed promising results. The same entry criteria and endpoints are being used.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing a direct answer to how close they are to the cap of the 1.45x in the OMERS transaction, citing an inability to disclose tracking details. Additionally, no new quantitative data was provided for the Phase II OI trial, and the response lacked specific updates.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Aspire study
Canada
Corporate
DTX crossover
DTX group
DTX placebo
Director
Dojolvi
Executive VP
Harris
MPS IIIA
OMERS
Phase III
balance sheet
cap
capital
cornstarch DTX
cornstarch risk
crossover group
dependence
disease week
dos week
financials
financing
genotype
glucose control
group dos
group patient
patient disease
placebo DTX
reduction
region demand
result improvement
royalty
transaction
week DTX
week patient
week result
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The earnings call reveals mixed signals: positive revenue growth guidance, strategic R&D investments, and strong patient support programs. However, concerns arise from management's vague responses about financial caps and lack of new data on trials. The anticipated profitability in 2027 and ongoing studies show potential, but uncertainties in trial outcomes and financial disclosures balance the sentiment, resulting in a neutral outlook.
RARE Slides
RARE Report
Frequently Asked Questions
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