PTON Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how PTON performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, PTON sees a -2.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.89% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +2.94%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
PTON Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
586.00M
-1.60%
-8.95%
Gross Margin
51.84%
8.16%
6.93%
Operating Margin
3.46%
123.52%
-140.56%
Net Margin
-0.15%
-99.44%
-96.84%
EPS
-0.00
-100.00%
-100.00%
No Data Available
PTON Earnings Analysis
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock Corporation (PTON.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Cash Reserves Strength: 1. Strong Cash Position: Peloton ended Q1 with $722 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, positioning the company well for future growth and stability.
Consistent Free Cash Flow: 2. Positive Free Cash Flow: The company generated $11 million of free cash flow in Q1, marking its third consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow and exceeding internal expectations.
Strong Operational Performance: 3. Improved Profitability Metrics: Peloton reported $13 million of GAAP operating income and $116 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1, significantly exceeding guidance and reflecting strong operational performance.
International Subscriber Growth: 4. Subscriber Growth in International Markets: Paid connected fitness subscribers in international markets grew by 8% in Q1, indicating strong retention and engagement trends that mirror those in North America.
Effective Cost Reduction: 5. Cost Management Success: Total operating expenses decreased by $126 million or 30% year-over-year, demonstrating effective cost management and progress towards the company's restructuring goals.
Negative
Subscriber Retention Challenges: 1. Subscriber Decline: Peloton reported a net decrease of 81,000 paid connected fitness subscribers in Q1, exceeding the high end of guidance by 10,000 subscribers, indicating challenges in subscriber retention.
App Subscription Decline: 2. Decreased App Subscriptions: The company experienced a net decrease of 33,000 paid app subscriptions in Q1, despite exceeding guidance by 12,000, reflecting ongoing struggles in the app segment.
Decline in Hardware Sales: 3. Lower Hardware Revenue: Connected fitness products revenue fell by 12% year-over-year, driven by lower hardware demand, highlighting a significant decline in sales performance.
Churn Rate Increase: 4. Increased Churn Rate: Average net monthly paid connected fitness subscription churn rose to 1.9%, an increase of approximately 40 basis points year-over-year, indicating potential issues with customer retention.
Q2 Subscriber Decline: 5. Q2 Subscriber Guidance: The guidance for Q2 FY '25 indicates a sequential decrease of 50,000 paid connected fitness subscriptions at the midpoint, suggesting continued challenges in subscriber growth.
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PTON Earning Call Sentiment
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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PTON.O
-2.14%Positive
The earnings call presented a mixed bag of strong financial performance, cost savings, and strategic initiatives like the Google Fitbit partnership and improved guidance, which are positive indicators. However, concerns about declining hardware sales and higher churn were noted. The Q&A provided clarity on inventory and churn management, and the focus on profitability and innovation is reassuring. Given the market cap, the positive factors are likely to outweigh negatives, leading to a stock price increase between 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.