Should You Buy OneStream Inc (OS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
23.640
1 Day change
-0.17%
52 Week Range
30.320
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now. OS is effectively trading as a take-private merger-arb: the agreed cash price is $24, while pre-market is ~$23.55 (only ~1.9% gross upside). With limited upside and meaningful downside if the deal is delayed/renegotiated/blocked, the risk-reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer looking for immediate upside. If you already own it, holding for deal completion can make sense; as a new buy, I would pass at this price.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market ~$23.55, just below the pivot 23.648 with tight nearby bands (S1 23.595 / S2 23.561; R1 23.701 / R2 23.735), implying limited technical runway.
Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an uptrend on the surface.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0699) and worsening, signaling weakening momentum even as price holds up.
RSI: RSI_6 is elevated at 77.46 (effectively near overbought), which typically caps near-term upside.
Pattern-based forward look: Similar-pattern stats imply muted near-term edge (next day ~flat; next month skew negative).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Call-side activity dominates (very low put/call volume ratio 0.22; OI put/call 0.74), consistent with bullish positioning or merger-arb structures.
Volatility: IV (30d ~65.7) is below historical vol (~74.5) and IV percentile ~64, implying options are not extremely expensive but still pricing meaningful event risk.
Flow intensity: Today’s option volume vs 30D average is high (~7.96x), consistent with event-driven positioning rather than pure trend trading.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish, but in a cash-deal situation this can reflect deal-positioning, not a strong directional “growth” bet.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Definitive take-private agreement at $24/share in cash provides a clear price anchor and reduces fundamental uncertainty.
Hedge funds net buying surged (+229% last quarter), consistent with event-driven/arb accumulation.
If the deal closes cleanly, the remaining spread from ~$23.55 to $24 is the primary upside catalyst.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Deal-spread is small (~1.9% gross upside) versus the downside if the transaction is delayed, repriced, or fails.
Insiders are heavy sellers (+724% selling over the last month), which is a negative signal for standalone conviction.
Momentum is weakening (negative, expanding MACD) while RSI is stretched, limiting near-term upside.
No supportive news flow in the last week; absent fresh positive catalysts, price may simply drift with deal odds and market risk.
No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure trade signal to support the thesis.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $154.3M (+19.49% YoY), showing solid top-line momentum. However, profitability deteriorated materially: net income fell to -$8.85M (down -94.85% YoY) and EPS to -$0.05 (down -95.33% YoY). Gross margin improved to 68.08% (up 35.81% YoY), indicating improving unit economics, but operating costs/other factors are pressuring the bottom line. Next scheduled earnings: QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-12 (after hours), though the pending acquisition may reduce how much fundamentals move the stock versus deal developments.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Broad wave of downgrades to Hold/Neutral/Market Perform after the $24 cash take-private announcement (Raymond James, Stephens, BMO, Rosenblatt, Loop) and JPMorgan to Underweight—price targets converge tightly around $24.
Wall Street view (pros): The $24 deal price is viewed as fair and provides a hard ceiling/anchor; most shops do not expect a higher bid.
Wall Street view (cons): Limited remaining upside versus deal-risk; several firms explicitly signal low probability of a topping bid and prefer not to chase the spread.
Wall Street analysts forecast OS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OS is 26.92 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 38 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast OS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OS is 26.92 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 38 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 23.680
Low
24
Averages
26.92
High
38
Current: 23.680
Low
24
Averages
26.92
High
38
JPMorgan
Neutral -> Underweight
downgrade
$23 -> $24
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$23 -> $24
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Neutral -> Underweight
Reason
JPMorgan downgraded OneStream to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $24, up from $23, citing the pending takeover by Hg.
Raymond James
Brian Peterson
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
2026-01-08
Reason
Raymond James
Brian Peterson
Price Target
2026-01-08
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Raymond James analyst Brian Peterson downgraded OneStream to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target after the company announced that it has entered into an agreement to be taken private by private equity firm Hg for $24 per share in cash.
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