OLPX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how OLPX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, OLPX sees a +3.98% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.52% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +2.52%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
OLPX Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
119.08M
-3.62%
14.56%
Gross Margin
60.00%
1.32%
-1.48%
Operating Margin
23.93%
-19.51%
39.13%
Net Margin
12.43%
-24.58%
123.56%
EPS
0.02
-33.33%
100.00%
No Data Available
OLPX Earnings Analysis
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Corporation (OLPX.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Cash Reserves Increase: 1. Strong Cash Position: Olaplex ended Q3 2024 with $538.8 million in cash and cash equivalents, an increase of $30.9 million from the previous quarter, providing flexibility for future investments.
Product Launch Success: 2. Successful Product Launches: The No. 5 Leave-In Conditioner became a Top 2 SKU on olaplex.com and a Top 5 SKU in Sephora's U.S. leave-in conditioner subcategory, exceeding initial forecasts with over 2 million social media impressions.
Stable Sell-Through Performance: 3. Positive Sell-Through Trends: Despite a decline in net sales, sell-through trends at key U.S. accounts remained consistent on an absolute dollar basis, indicating stability in core inventory positions.
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: 4. High Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: The adjusted gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 70.8%, up 110 basis points from the previous year, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
Direct-to-Consumer Sales Growth: 5. Increased Direct-to-Consumer Sales: Direct-to-consumer sales rose by 6.8% year-over-year to $34.3 million, driven by strong sell-in ahead of a successful major customer promotion in July.
Negative
Net Sales Decline: 1. Declining Net Sales: Third quarter net sales decreased by 3.6% year-over-year to $119.1 million, falling short of expectations primarily due to weaker international performance.
Sales Guidance Revision: 2. Revised Sales Guidance: The company revised its fiscal year 2024 net sales guidance down to a range of $405 million to $415 million, a significant drop from the previous range of $435 million to $463 million.
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA: 3. Decreased Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA declined by 13.4% to $44.6 million, resulting in a margin decrease from 41.7% in Q3 2023 to 37.5% in Q3 2024.
Rising SG&A Expenses: 4. Increased SG&A Expenses: Adjusted SG&A expenses rose to $40.4 million in Q3 2024, up from $33.7 million in the same quarter last year, driven by higher sales and marketing costs.
International Sales Decline: 5. Weak International Business Performance: The professional channel net sales dropped by 12.6% year-over-year, primarily due to weaker demand in the international market as the company realigns its distributor network.
OLPX FAQs
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OLPX Earning Call Sentiment
Olaplex Holdings, Inc (OLPX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
OLPX.O
-1.39%Positive
The earnings call reflects several negative indicators: declining net sales and adjusted EBITDA, increased SG&A expenses, and lack of a clear timeline for international sales stabilization. The absence of a shareholder return plan and vague responses in the Q&A further dampen sentiment. Despite positive cash flow, the challenges in international markets and increased promotional activity suggest a negative outlook. Given the company's small market cap, the stock price is likely to react strongly, resulting in a predicted negative movement of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
