NRG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NRG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NRG sees a -2.80% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +5.08% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.02%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NRG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
7.22B
-9.10%
8.47%
Gross Margin
-5.09%
-133.22%
-116.80%
Operating Margin
-14.02%
-292.32%
-165.48%
Net Margin
-10.62%
-345.83%
-195.85%
EPS
-3.79
-368.79%
-212.46%
No Data Available
NRG Earnings Analysis
NRG Energy, Inc. Corporation (NRG.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Financial Guidance Increase: 1. Increased Financial Guidance: NRG raised its 2024 financial guidance by $175 million, marking the second consecutive year of surpassing original earnings targets, and is initiating strong guidance for 2025 with adjusted EPS expected at $7.25.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase: 2. Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth: The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.055 billion for Q3 2024, an increase of $68 million compared to the same quarter last year, driven by strong performance across all segments.
Free Cash Flow Surge: 3. Significant Free Cash Flow Generation: NRG generated free cash flow before growth of $815 million in Q3 2024, a substantial increase of $460 million over Q3 2023, reflecting higher gross margins and favorable working capital.
Increased Share Repurchase Authorization: 4. Robust Share Repurchase Program: NRG announced an increase in its share repurchase authorization by an additional $1 billion, with over $3.8 billion in share repurchases executed since 2019, representing nearly 30% of shares outstanding.
Virtual Power Plant Initiative: 5. Strategic Partnership for Virtual Power Plant: NRG's partnership with Renew Home and Google aims to develop a 1 gigawatt residential virtual power plant in Texas, with a goal of reaching 650 megawatts of dispatchable capacity by 2030, enhancing customer engagement and operational resilience.
Negative
Power Price Stability Impact: 1. Declining Power Price Volatility: NRG's Texas operations experienced a lack of power price volatility, resulting in lower pricing and reduced margins compared to previous years, despite warm temperatures.
Future Tax Implications: 2. Increased Tax Burden: The company anticipates a higher tax rate starting in 2026 due to expiring tax credits, which could negatively impact earnings growth in the following years.
Asset Sales and EBITDA Impact: 3. Impact of Asset Sales on EBITDA: The sale of the Airtron HVAC business is expected to reduce EBITDA by an unspecified amount, which could hinder overall financial performance in 2025.
Increased Interest Expenses: 4. Higher Interest Costs: NRG is facing increased interest costs as maturing low-cost debt is refinanced at higher rates, which will negatively affect earnings and free cash flow growth.
Customer Churn Impact: 5. Customer Churn in Home Energy: The home energy industry has elevated customer churn rates, which could impact NRG's ability to retain customers and grow its market share in the competitive Texas market.
NRG FAQs
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NRG Earning Call Sentiment
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
NRG.N
-4.6%Positive
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with increased EBITDA and EPS, optimistic guidance, and significant shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. The Q&A section reveals positive sentiment from analysts, despite some uncertainties about future projects. The increase in share repurchase authorization and dividend hike are strong positive signals. Economic factors pose risks, but the company's strategic initiatives and financial outlook suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
