NCNO Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NCNO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NCNO sees a -1.73% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.95% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.95%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NCNO Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
141.37M
14.29%
1.85%
Gross Margin
59.67%
-0.91%
-2.63%
Operating Margin
-2.05%
-13.14%
-204.59%
Net Margin
-11.02%
-1092.79%
268.56%
EPS
-0.16
-1700.00%
220.00%
No Data Available
NCNO Earnings Analysis
nCino Inc Corporation (NCNO.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Revenue Growth Overview: nCino's total revenues increased by 14% year-over-year in Q4, reaching $141.4 million, and for the full fiscal year, revenues grew by 13% to $540.7 million.
Subscription Revenue Growth: Subscription revenues for Q4 were $125 million, a 16% increase year-over-year, and for the full year, they grew by 15% to $469.2 million.
International Revenue Surge: Non-U.S. total revenues in Q4 surged by 34% year-over-year, indicating strong international growth, and for the full year, they were up 30%.
Organic ACV Growth: The company reported a 9% organic growth in Annual Contract Value (ACV) for fiscal '25, reflecting improved sales momentum, particularly in the U.S. community and regional markets.
Net Retention Rate Improvement: nCino's net retention rate for ACV improved to 106% in fiscal '25, indicating growing demand from existing customers and a normalization of churn rates.
Consumer Lending Expansion: The company successfully added over 20 new Consumer Lending deals in Q4, including significant wins with large banks, showcasing the momentum in this segment.
Strategic Acquisitions Impact: nCino's acquisitions, including FullCircl and Sandbox Banking, are expected to contribute positively to future financial performance and enhance their product offerings.
AI-Driven Efficiency Improvements: The company is focused on leveraging AI technology to drive efficiency and improve customer experiences, with significant advancements in their Banking Advisor suite already yielding time savings for clients.
Leadership Changes for Growth: nCino's leadership changes, particularly in European operations, are aimed at sharpening execution and capturing growth opportunities in that region.
Future Growth Expectations: The company has a strong pipeline for future growth, with expectations for reacceleration in subscription revenue growth in fiscal '27 as they address current challenges.
Negative
Earnings Miss Report: nCino, Inc. misses on earnings expectations, reporting EPS of $0.12 against expectations of $0.18.
International Sales Challenges: Sales execution and urgency in international markets, particularly Europe, were not as effective as needed, impacting new bookings momentum.
Onboarding Delays Impact Revenue: The integration of the DocFox acquisition caused delays in onboarding product sales, which contributed to lower revenue expectations.
Interest Rate Expectations Misjudged: The company was overly optimistic about a drop in interest rates leading to increased mortgage activity, which did not materialize.
Revenue Outlook Challenges: Fiscal 2026 revenue outlook is below expectations due to compounding headwinds from both external macroeconomic factors and internal execution challenges.
Mortgage Revenue Stability: The U.S. mortgage business is expected to see no year-over-year increase in subscription revenues due to uncertainty around mortgage rates.
Subscription Revenue Decline: Subscription revenue net retention rate declined to 110% from 116% in fiscal 2024, indicating increased churn and lower demand from existing customers.
Negative Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow was negative $10.4 million in Q4 fiscal 2025, down from positive $7.7 million in Q4 fiscal 2024, due to acquisition-related costs and increased interest expenses.
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NCNO Earning Call Sentiment
nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
NCNO.O
-0.6%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Positive factors include a strong revenue increase, shareholder returns via a stock repurchase program, and optimistic customer sentiment. However, elevated churn, negative currency impacts, and vague responses in the Q&A raise concerns. The stock's mid-sized market cap suggests moderate volatility, but the lack of clear guidance and the negative impact from international markets temper expectations. As such, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral outlook.
