MDGL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MDGL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MDGL sees a -3.29% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +5.49% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.19%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MDGL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
103.32M
--
66.18%
Gross Margin
96.67%
--
0.13%
Operating Margin
-64.84%
--
-65.34%
Net Margin
-57.51%
--
-66.57%
EPS
-2.71
-52.20%
-44.92%
No Data Available
MDGL Earnings Analysis
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Corporation (MDGL.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q4 Sales Surge: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals achieved $103 million in net sales in Q4 2024, reflecting a 66% quarter-over-quarter growth.
Net Sales Achievement: For the full year 2024, Madrigal generated $180 million in net sales, despite launching Rezdiffra only in April.
Successful Specialty Medicine Launch: The launch trajectory of Rezdiffra is tracking in line with some of the most successful specialty medicine launches in the past decade.
Patient Reach Milestone: Madrigal reached over 11,800 patients on Rezdiffra by the end of Q4 2024, a significant milestone in just nine months post-launch.
Commercial Coverage Milestone: The company achieved greater than 80% commercial coverage for Rezdiffra one quarter ahead of schedule.
Prescriber Adoption Increase: Approximately 60% of Madrigal's top 6,000 target prescribers prescribed Rezdiffra in Q4 2024, up from 40% in Q3 2024.
Liver Stiffness Improvement: Rezdiffra has shown a 91% improvement in liver stiffness in patients, indicating its effectiveness as a treatment.
Liver Stiffness Reduction: The two-year data from the F4c cohort showed a mean reduction of 6.7 kPa in liver stiffness, the largest reported in this patient population.
Liver Stiffness Improvement: 51% of patients in the F4c cohort achieved a 25% or greater decrease in liver stiffness, suggesting a move to a lower risk category.
Strong Cash Position: Madrigal ended 2024 with $931.3 million in cash and equivalents, providing a strong financial position to support ongoing operations.
Negative
SG&A Expense Surge: Significant increase in SG&A expenses, which rose to $141.2 million for Q4 2024, compared to $46.5 million in Q4 2023, indicating high costs associated with the rapid scale-up of commercial operations post-approval of Rezdiffra.
R&D Expense Trends: R&D expenses for 2024 were $236.7 million, a decrease from $272.4 million in the previous year, but the company anticipates a higher level of R&D spending in 2025, which could indicate ongoing financial strain as they continue to invest in clinical trials and development.
Gross-to-Net Discount Impact: The gross-to-net discount is expected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024, which may impact net sales growth despite the anticipated robust year-over-year growth.
Market Penetration Challenges: Despite achieving $103 million in net sales for Q4 2024, the company has only penetrated less than 4% of the target market of 315,000 diagnosed patients, indicating a long road ahead for market capture and potential revenue growth.
Rezdiffra Adoption Challenges: The company is still in the early stages of the Rezdiffra launch, with only 11,800 patients on therapy by the end of Q4 2024, suggesting that adoption rates may not be as rapid as initially hoped.
