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01/11 16:02
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. Basic financial performance and expenses show stability, but the lack of clear guidance and reliance on future updates creates uncertainty. Product development and market strategy have potential with AI initiatives, yet the absence of immediate implementation limits positivity. Shareholder return plans are not explicitly outlined, and while Wholesale Banking growth is positive, flat deposit growth and unclear management responses temper enthusiasm. Overall, the sentiment is neutral due to balanced positives and negatives, with no strong catalysts for significant stock movement.
Mobile Primary Customers Added nearly 200,000 during the quarter, bringing growth in the last 12 months to over EUR 1.1 million. This growth is well ahead of the target set at the Capital Markets Day.
Net Core Lending Growth (Retail) EUR 8.6 billion, driven mainly by residential mortgages.
Net Core Lending Growth (Wholesale Banking) EUR 14.2 billion, supported by trade finance services and lending, reflecting increased client financing needs.
Core Deposits Declined by around EUR 200 million, largely due to the conclusion of promotional campaigns and seasonal spending patterns during the summer in Retail Banking.
Customer Balances Grew at an annualized rate of 7% in the first 9 months of 2025, keeping on track to achieve the 4% annual growth target.
Fee Income Grew by 15% year-on-year, with a year-to-date growth of 12%. Growth was driven by structural revenue drivers across both Retail and Wholesale Banking, including a rise in mobile primary customers, investment products, and lending activities.
Return on Equity (ROE) Fourth quarter rolling average stands at 12.6%, with a revised full-year outlook of more than 12.5%.
Sustainable Finance Volumes Up 29% compared to the same period last year, reflecting commitment to supporting clients in sustainability transitions.
Net Profit EUR 6 billion over the past 4 quarters, contributing an additional 2 percentage points to the CET1 ratio.
Shareholder Distributions EUR 4.5 billion over the last 12 months and EUR 12.5 billion over the last 3 years, including a EUR 2 billion share buyback program concluded earlier this week and an additional EUR 1.6 billion distribution announced.
CET1 Ratio Updated target of around 13%, with a buffer of about 180 basis points above the MDA threshold.
Commercial Net Interest Income (NII) Expected to come in between EUR 15.2 billion and EUR 15.3 billion for full year 2025, driven by strong performance in Wholesale Banking Lending and Retail Banking Germany.
Expenses Excluding regulatory costs and incidental items, rose less than 3% year-on-year, reflecting wage inflation and ongoing investment in business growth and scalability.
Risk Costs EUR 326 million this quarter, equivalent to 19 basis points of average customer lending, below the through-the-cycle average.
Mobile primary customers: Added nearly 200,000 mobile primary customers during the quarter, bringing growth in the last 12 months to over 1.1 million.
Loan book expansion: Retail saw EUR 8.6 billion in net core lending growth, mainly driven by residential mortgages. Wholesale Banking also delivered strong growth supported by trade finance services and lending.
Sustainable finance: Sustainable finance volumes increased by 29% compared to the same period last year.
Customer balances: Grew at an annualized rate of 7% in the first 9 months of 2025, on track to achieve a 4% annual growth target.
Fee income: Year-to-date fees grew by 12%, with a full-year growth outlook raised to more than 10%.
Capital generation: Delivered EUR 6 billion of net profit over the past 4 quarters, contributing an additional 2 percentage points to the CET1 ratio.
Operational efficiencies: Investing in digitization and generative AI capabilities, including a GenAI chatbot live in 6 markets and AI-assisted loan processing.
Cost management: Proactive measures to operate efficiently, guiding total costs towards the lower end of the EUR 12.5 billion to EUR 12.7 billion range.
Shareholder returns: Announced an additional EUR 1.6 billion distribution, including a EUR 1.1 billion share buyback and EUR 500 million cash dividend.
CET1 ratio target: Revised CET1 ratio target to around 13%, with excess capital above this threshold to be returned to shareholders.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty: The company acknowledges the prevalence of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, which could impact its operations and financial performance.
Core deposits decline: Core deposits declined slightly due to promotional campaigns and seasonal spending patterns, which could affect liquidity and financial stability.
Regulatory changes: The CET1 MDA target has risen due to regulatory changes, requiring adjustments in capital targets and planning.
Incidental expenses: Additional incidental expenses, including restructuring provisions, could impact cost management and financial performance.
Risk costs: Total risk costs were EUR 326 million this quarter, with net additions to Stage 3 provisions due to collective provisioning in Retail Banking and newly defaulted files in Wholesale Banking.
Loan book quality: The company faces risks related to the quality of its loan book, as evidenced by the need for collective provisioning and newly defaulted files.
Operational risk-weighted assets: Operational risk-weighted assets remained flat, but any future increases could pose challenges to capital adequacy.
Market risk-weighted assets: Market risk-weighted assets decreased, but fluctuations in these assets could impact financial stability.
Fee Growth: The company has raised its expectation for fee growth, now anticipating fees to come in more than 10% higher than last year.
Total Income: The company has increased its outlook for total income, expecting it to reach around EUR 22.8 billion in 2025.
Cost Management: The company continues to guide total costs towards the lower end of the EUR 12.5 billion to EUR 12.7 billion range, despite additional incidental expenses this quarter.
CET1 Ratio Target: The CET1 target has been updated to around 13%, providing a buffer of about 180 basis points above the MDA threshold.
Return on Equity (ROE): The company has raised its ROE expectation for 2025 to more than 12.5%.
Mobile Primary Customers: The company remains on track to achieve its annual growth target of 1 million mobile primary customers in 2025, having added nearly 700,000 so far this year.
Commercial NII: The company expects commercial NII to come in between EUR 15.2 billion and EUR 15.3 billion for the full year 2025.
Shareholder Returns: The company announced an additional EUR 1.6 billion distribution, including a EUR 1.1 billion share buyback and a EUR 500 million cash dividend to be paid in January 2026.
Ordinary Cash Dividend Yield: Nearly 6% in the last 12 months.
Cash Dividend Payment: EUR 500 million to be paid in January 2026.
Share Buyback Program: EUR 2 billion program started in May 2025 and concluded earlier this week.
Additional Share Buyback: EUR 1.1 billion announced as part of a new distribution.
The earnings call summary highlights strong revenue growth across key segments, disciplined cash flow management, and a solid cash position. Q&A insights reveal confidence in continued demand, growth from acquisitions, and strategic investments, despite some avoidance of specific details. The positive sentiment is reinforced by the company's broad-based strength, execution, and alignment with policy goals. Overall, the company's performance and outlook suggest a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. Basic financial performance and expenses show stability, but the lack of clear guidance and reliance on future updates creates uncertainty. Product development and market strategy have potential with AI initiatives, yet the absence of immediate implementation limits positivity. Shareholder return plans are not explicitly outlined, and while Wholesale Banking growth is positive, flat deposit growth and unclear management responses temper enthusiasm. Overall, the sentiment is neutral due to balanced positives and negatives, with no strong catalysts for significant stock movement.
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: EPS missed expectations, but there is a positive outlook for mortgage demand and a strong share buyback program. Operating expenses increased, and there are macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The Q&A section showed management's cautious approach, with some ambiguity in guidance. These factors balance out, leading to a neutral sentiment with potential short-term volatility.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Positives include a strong shareholder return plan with a significant share buyback, robust fee income growth, and a solid CET1 ratio. However, risks from geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic conditions, and potential impacts on margins from interest rate volatility balance these positives. The Q&A section reveals some management evasiveness, particularly concerning lending margin guidance, which could raise concerns. Overall, the blend of positive shareholder returns and cautious financial outlook results in a neutral sentiment, likely leading to a stock price movement within -2% to 2%.
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