ICFI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ICFI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ICFI sees a -0.22% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.33% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.50%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ICFI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
496.32M
3.76%
-4.00%
Gross Margin
33.43%
-0.24%
-3.35%
Operating Margin
7.35%
-4.79%
-17.42%
Net Margin
4.95%
6.91%
-21.68%
EPS
1.30
12.07%
-24.86%
No Data Available
ICFI Earnings Analysis
ICF International Inc Corporation (ICFI.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Financial Performance: 2024 was a year of solid growth, substantial profitability, and robust cash flow.
Energy Advisory Revenue Growth: Strong demand for energy advisory and program implementation for commercial clients contributed to revenue growth.
EBITDA Margin Expansion: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 30 basis points to 11.2%, driving a 15% increase in non-GAAP EPS to $7.45.
Strong Demand Indicator: Trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.24 indicates strong demand and business health.
Strategic Acquisition for Growth: Acquisition of Applied Energy Group enhances ICF's capabilities in energy technology and advisory services.
Energy Revenue Increase: Commercial energy revenues increased by 26%, driven by new wins and contract expansions.
Disaster Recovery Contracts Overview: ICF has 85 active disaster recovery contracts in 20 states, showcasing its extensive experience and capability in disaster recovery.
International Revenue Growth: International government revenue increased by 4.2% year-on-year, reflecting successful contract wins, particularly with the UK government.
Revenue Growth Expectations: Expectations for revenue growth of at least 15% in 2025 from commercial, state and local, and international government clients.
Strong Cash Flow Performance: Operating cash flow exceeded guidance, reflecting strong performance and cash management initiatives.
Effective Debt Reduction Strategy: Debt reduction strategy is effective, with a significant improvement in adjusted net leverage ratio to 1.8 times at year-end.
Share Repurchase Confidence: Share repurchases demonstrate confidence in ICF's long-term outlook, with 395,000 shares repurchased for $48 million since mid-November 2024.
Negative
Revenue Impact from Contract Issues: Approximately $90 million of estimated 2025 revenues have been affected by stop work orders and contract terminations, primarily related to USAID contracts.
Federal Revenue Decline: The federal government business saw a decline of 2.4% in revenue, attributed to lower pass-through costs and ramp-up delays on public health contracts.
Flat Federal Revenues: Federal government revenues were flat year-over-year, with a significant impact from a decrease in pass-through costs that reduced growth by 350 basis points.
Revenue Risk Forecast: The company anticipates a maximum risk of approximately a 10% reduction in total revenues from 2024 levels due to the new administration's funding priorities.
EBITDA Decline in Q4: The fourth quarter EBITDA decreased to $50.8 million from $53.9 million in the prior year, indicating a decline in profitability.
Gross Margin Decline: Gross margin in the fourth quarter was 36.1%, down from 36.5% in the prior-year period, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability.
Government Revenue Decline: The company faced a decline in state and local government revenue, which was slightly below last year due to the completion of a contract with the state of Maryland.
ICFI FAQs
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ICFI Earning Call Sentiment
ICF International, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICFI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
ICFI.O
-0.67%Positive
ICF's earnings call presents a generally positive outlook. The company reported solid financial performance with increased revenue, EPS, and operating cash flow. Despite some concerns about federal revenue and gross margin decline, the overall growth in commercial revenue and energy markets, along with improved debt metrics, is encouraging. The Q&A section addressed risks but maintained a confident outlook. The increase in EPS guidance and share repurchases further bolster positive sentiment. Given the market cap, a 2% to 8% stock price increase is likely over the next two weeks.
