Loading...
01/10 19:54
Loading...
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary indicates a challenging financial performance with declines in global retail sales, wholesale shipments, HDMC revenue, and gross margin. Although there are some positives, such as increased operating cash flow and share repurchases, the flat to declining guidance for 2025 and uncertainties around HDFS and tariffs weigh negatively. The Q&A section reveals concerns about management clarity and strategic direction. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a negative reaction, with a projected movement between -2% and -8% over the next two weeks.
Operating Income Margin 12.1%, down from 15.2% year-over-year, a decline of 310 basis points primarily due to lower volume and dealer inventory management.
Global Retail Sales Down 21% in Q1, with a 24% decline in North America, attributed to low consumer confidence and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Global Wholesale Shipments Down 33% year-over-year, with 39,000 units shipped compared to 58,000 units in the prior year.
HDMC Revenue Decreased by 27% in Q1, driven by a 30-point decline from decreased wholesale volume and a 1-point decline from foreign exchange impacts.
Gross Margin 29.1%, down from 31.2% year-over-year, a decrease of 210 basis points due to lower revenue and operating leverage.
Operating Expenses $199 million, down $24 million from the prior year.
Operating Income $160 million, a decline of 51% at HDMC, partially offset by a 19% increase in HDFS.
Earnings Per Share $1.07 for Q1.
HDFS Revenue $245 million, a decrease of 2% year-over-year, driven by lower retail and commercial receivables.
HDFS Operating Income $64 million, up $10 million or 19% year-over-year, driven by lower provision for credit losses and operating expenses.
Retail Credit Loss Ratio 3.8%, slightly up from 3.7% year-over-year.
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents $1.9 billion, up $467 million from the end of Q1 last year.
Operating Cash Flow $142 million, up $38 million from the prior period.
Share Repurchases 3.4 million shares bought back at a value of $87 million in Q1.
LiveWire Operating Loss $20 million, improved from a $29 million loss in the prior Q1.
LiveWire Revenue Decreased due to lower unit sales of electric motorcycles.
Capital Expenditures Reduced to a range of $200 million to $225 million for 2025.
Productivity Savings Achieved $24 million in Q1, part of a $400 million improvement target by 2025.
New Product Launch: Launched the limited production Harley Davidson CVO Road Glide RR, the most powerful street-legal performance bagger in the company's history, with production limited to 131 hand-assembled motorcycles.
Entry-Level Products: Planning to introduce new entry-level products in smaller displacements and an iconic classic for US and international markets starting next year.
Market Expansion: Shifting model year timing to fall to create additional selling opportunities later in the year.
Retail Sales Performance: Global retail sales down 21% in Q1, with a 24% decline in North America, attributed to low consumer confidence.
Operational Efficiency: Achieved $24 million in unlevered productivity savings primarily from logistics and supply chain initiatives.
Inventory Management: Global wholesale shipments down 33% and dealer inventory down 19% compared to Q1 last year.
Strategic Shift in Marketing: Allocating the majority of the marketing development fund in Q2 and beyond to support dealer network during the riding season.
LiveWire Investment Evaluation: Evaluating options for investment in LiveWire, with plans to reduce cash burn and operating losses.
Consumer Confidence: Global retail sales were down 21% in Q1, with a 24% decline in North America, attributed to historically low levels of consumer confidence in an uncertain macro environment.
Supply Chain Challenges: Despite tight cost control in logistics and supply chain, the company is facing challenges with reduced wholesale shipments down 33% and dealer inventory down 19%.
Economic Factors: The company is withdrawing its previous 2025 guidance due to uncertainty over the economy and tariff landscape, indicating a cautious outlook.
Tariff and Trade Issues: The fluid tariff environment poses a risk, with an estimated impact from new tariffs in 2025 ranging from $130 million to $175 million.
LiveWire Investment Risks: LiveWire faces headwinds in the EV segment, with a slower than anticipated adoption rate and plans to seek external capital to sustain operations.
Operating Losses: LiveWire expects operating losses of approximately $59 million, with a cash burn of $49 million, indicating financial strain.
Operating Income Margin: HDI operating income margin for the quarter came in at 12.1%.
Marketing Development Fund: The Marketing Development Fund is the most significant co-marketing investment made in the company's history, aimed at supporting the network into the riding season.
Product Launches: Planning to introduce new entry-level products in smaller displacements and an iconic classic for the US and international markets starting next year.
Productivity Cost Program: Expecting to drive a $400 million improvement in productivity by 2025, with $257 million achieved from 2022 to 2024.
LiveWire Investment: Evaluating all options for investment in LiveWire, with no additional investments planned beyond a $100 million line of credit.
2025 Financial Outlook: Withdrawing previous 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff environment.
Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures are now projected to be in the range of $200 million to $225 million.
Share Repurchases: Plans to deliver on $1 billion in share repurchases by the end of 2026.
Operating Losses for LiveWire: LiveWire now expects operating losses of approximately $59 million, down from previous guidance of $70 million to $80 million.
Tariff Impact: Estimated 2025 impact from new tariffs to be in the range of $130 million to $175 million.
Share Repurchase Program: In Q1 of 2025, Harley-Davidson bought back 3.4 million shares of its stock at a value of $87 million.
Capital Allocation Strategy: Harley-Davidson plans to return $1 billion in share repurchases by the end of 2026, having returned $1.5 billion in capital to shareholders since 2022, including $1.2 billion in share repurchases.
Total Shareholder Return: As of mid-April, HOG stock has outperformed its peer group by 10 percentage points over the past five years, 3 percentage points over the last three years, and 7 percentage points over the last year.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Positive factors include strategic partnerships, new product launches, and a significant increase in HDFS operating income. However, global retail sales are down, margins have declined, and the company has withdrawn guidance, which typically leads to negative sentiment. The Q&A reveals management's optimism about future strategies but also highlights demographic challenges and high inventory levels. Considering the market cap, the overall sentiment is neutral, indicating a small potential stock price movement within the -2% to 2% range over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary reveals several negative aspects: a decline in HDFS revenue and operating income, decreased LiveWire unit sales, and a significant drop in consolidated operating income margin. The Q&A section highlights reduced consumer demand and higher interest rates impacting retail loan originations. Although there are positive elements like improved profitability in HDFS and expected retail sales growth, the overall sentiment is negative due to the withdrawal of 2025 guidance and macroeconomic uncertainties. Given the market cap, the stock price is likely to experience a negative reaction in the range of -2% to -8%.
The earnings call reveals several concerning points: a significant decline in revenue and operating income margins, coupled with weak guidance for 2025. Despite a positive EPS surprise, the overall financial health appears strained, with declining shipments and retail sales. The Q&A section highlights uncertainties about strategic partnerships and the HDFS division, adding to investor concerns. The market cap suggests moderate volatility, but the negative financial indicators and lack of clear strategic direction are likely to result in a stock price decline over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary indicates a challenging financial performance with declines in global retail sales, wholesale shipments, HDMC revenue, and gross margin. Although there are some positives, such as increased operating cash flow and share repurchases, the flat to declining guidance for 2025 and uncertainties around HDFS and tariffs weigh negatively. The Q&A section reveals concerns about management clarity and strategic direction. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a negative reaction, with a projected movement between -2% and -8% over the next two weeks.
All transcripts are sourced directly from the official live webcast or the company’s official investor relations website. We use the exact words spoken during the call with no paraphrasing of the core discussion.
Full verbatim transcripts are typically published within 4–12 hours after the call ends. Same-day availability is guaranteed for all S&P 500 and most mid-cap companies.
No material content is ever changed or summarized in the “Full Transcript” section. We only correct obvious spoken typos (e.g., “um”, “ah”, repeated 10 times”, or clear misspoken ticker symbols) and add speaker names/titles for readability. Every substantive sentence remains 100% as spoken.
When audio quality is poor or multiple speakers talk over each other, we mark the section instead of guessing. This ensures complete accuracy rather than introducing potential errors.
They are generated by a specialized financial-language model trained exclusively on 15+ years of earnings transcripts. The model extracts financial figures, guidance, and tone with 97%+ accuracy and is regularly validated against human analysts. The full raw transcript always remains available for verification.
