HLMN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how HLMN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, HLMN sees a -2.41% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.88% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.32%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
HLMN Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
349.56M
0.50%
-11.12%
Gross Margin
38.07%
-0.10%
-4.20%
Operating Margin
5.44%
-34.85%
-25.48%
Net Margin
-0.35%
-87.89%
-118.52%
EPS
-0.01
-80.00%
-125.00%
No Data Available
HLMN Earnings Analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp Corporation (HLMN.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
60th Anniversary Celebration: Hillman Solutions Corp. celebrated its 60th anniversary in 2024, highlighting a strong legacy of customer service and commitment to growth.
Vendor Recognition Awards: The company received Vendor of the Year awards from both Home Depot and Lowe’s, indicating strong customer relationships and recognition in the industry.
Record EBITDA Achievement: Hillman achieved the highest EBITDA in its history, demonstrating effective business management and profitability despite market challenges.
Strategic Acquisitions for Growth: The company made two strategic acquisitions in 2024, which are expected to provide organic growth opportunities and enhance product offerings.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA increased by 10.2% to $241.8 million for the full year, showcasing strong financial performance.
Gross Margin Improvement: Adjusted gross margins improved by 390 basis points to 48.1%, driven by operational efficiencies and a higher margin product mix.
HPS EBITDA Growth: The Hardware and Protective Solutions (HPS) business saw a 23% increase in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting its stability and value proposition.
Growth Strategy Overview: The company is focused on a growth strategy aiming for $2 billion in net sales over the next three to five years, with plans for strategic acquisitions and organic growth.
Technology Investment Strategy: Hillman is investing in technology, including cloud migration and AI, to enhance operational efficiency and customer service.
Debt Reduction Success: The company has a strong balance sheet, having paid down over $900 million in debt over the past four years, improving its financial leverage.
Negative
Earnings Miss Reported: Hillman Solutions Corp. missed earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $0.1, falling short of the expected $0.11.
Net Sales Stagnation: Net sales for 2024 totaled $1.473 billion, slightly down from 2023, indicating a stagnation in growth despite acquisitions.
Retail Foot Traffic Decline: Foot traffic at retail customers declined nearly 6% compared to the prior year, contributing to a challenging sales environment.
Home Sales Decline: Existing home sales fell to 30-year lows, totaling just 4.06 million, which negatively impacted market volume by five points in 2024.
Pricing Power Challenges: Price was a 1% headwind for the year, indicating challenges in maintaining pricing power amidst market conditions.
Increased SG&A Percentage: Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 31.6% for the full year, up from 29.5% in 2023, reflecting higher employee bonus expenses and IT costs.
Free Cash Flow Decline: Free cash flow for the year totaled $98.1 million, significantly down from $172.3 million in 2023, indicating cash generation challenges.
Cash Flow Decline: Operating activities generated $183 million of cash, down from $283 million in 2023, highlighting a decline in cash flow generation.
Negative Free Cash Flow: The company expects free cash flow to be negative in Q1 2025 as they build inventory, which is typical but indicates short-term cash flow pressures.
HLMN FAQs
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HLMN Earning Call Sentiment
Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
HLMN.O
0.98%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there are positives such as improved gross margins, increased guidance, and debt reduction, challenges like supply chain risks, regulatory issues, and economic uncertainties are concerning. The Q&A revealed stabilization in Q1 but also highlighted management's vague responses on tariffs and growth timelines. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a neutral sentiment prediction.
