FWRG Valuation

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

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15.720

-0.22(-1.380%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

FWRG Relative Valuation

FWRG's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, FWRG is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 48.67 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of 67.17. The fair price of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) is between 7.73 to 33.99 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

7.73-33.99

Current Price：15.72

Fair

48.67

Trailing

Forward

14.02

EV/EBITDA

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) has a current EV/EBITDA of 14.02. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 16.94. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 10.04, Undervalued between 10.04 and 13.49, Fairly Valued between 20.39 and 13.49, Overvalued between 20.39 and 23.84, and Strongly Overvalued above 23.84. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 14.02 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

42.04

EV/EBIT

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) has a current EV/EBIT of 42.04. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 53.16. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -18.92, Undervalued between -18.92 and 17.12, Fairly Valued between 89.21 and 17.12, Overvalued between 89.21 and 125.25, and Strongly Overvalued above 125.25. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 42.04 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.73

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) has a current PS of 0.73. The 5-year average PS is 1.11. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.63, Undervalued between 0.63 and 0.87, Fairly Valued between 1.34 and 0.87, Overvalued between 1.34 and 1.58, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.58. The current Forward PS of 0.73 falls within the Undervalued range.

7.60

P/OCF

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) has a current P/OCF of 7.60. The 5-year average P/OCF is 11.39. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 6.01, Undervalued between 6.01 and 8.70, Fairly Valued between 14.07 and 8.70, Overvalued between 14.07 and 16.76, and Strongly Overvalued above 16.76. The current Forward P/OCF of 7.60 falls within the Undervalued range.

-34.69

P/FCF

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) has a current P/FCF of -34.69. The 5-year average P/FCF is -14.88. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -427.03, Undervalued between -427.03 and -220.96, Fairly Valued between 191.19 and -220.96, Overvalued between 191.19 and 397.26, and Strongly Overvalued above 397.26. The current Forward P/FCF of -34.69 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.60. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.90 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -16.10% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 1.92, the current P/B ratio is about -16.87% higher. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 0.00%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -0.02%, the current FCF yield is approximately -100.00% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 0.63% , the current FCF yield is about -100.00% lower.

1.60

P/B

Median3y

1.90

Median5y

1.92

-2.99

FCF Yield

Median3y

-0.02

Median5y

0.63

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for FWRG's competitors is 2.03, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Corp (FWRG) exhibits a P/S ratio of , which is -100.00% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 19.08%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

FWRG.O

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of FWRG increased by 2.18% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from 162.13 to 264.81.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 19.08%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of FWRG in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

19.08%

258.56M → 307.89M

Revenue Growth

-80.23%

3.44 → 0.68

Margin Expansion

63.33%

162.13 → 264.81

P/E Change

2.18%