Earning Analysis
Welcome to our in-depth analysis of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc(FWRG) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.
Earnings Forecast
Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate
Surprise Analysis
| FY2025Q3 | 2025-11-04 | Pre-Market | 0.08 | 0.05 | -37.50 | 309.57M | 316.02M | +2.09 | +11.04 | +8.45 |
| FY2025Q2 | 2025-08-05 | Pre-Market | 0.07 | 0.03 | -57.14 | 306.55M | 307.89M | +0.44 | +3.54 | +2.44 |
| FY2025Q1 | 2025-05-06 | Pre-Market | 0.04 | -0.01 | -125.00 | 283.28M | 282.24M | -0.37 | -17.62 | -15.26 |
| FY2024Q4 | 2025-03-11 | Pre-Market | 0.02 | 0.01 | -50.00 | 263.07M | 263.29M | +0.08 | -7.02 | -10.33 |
| FY2024Q2 | 2024-08-06 | - | 0.12 | 0.14 | +16.67 | 257.65M | 258.56M | +0.35 | +11.06 | +13.59 |
| FY2024Q1 | 2024-05-07 | - | 0.10 | 0.12 | +20.00 | 245.04M | 242.45M | -1.06 | -14.41 | -21.69 |
| FY2023Q4 | 2024-03-05 | - | 0.04 | 0.04 | - | 237.20M | 244.63M | +3.13 | -3.46 | -3.22 |
| FY2023Q3 | 2023-11-01 | - | 0.04 | 0.09 | +125.00 | 216.60M | 219.21M | +1.21 | +2.51 | +0.54 |
| FY2023Q2 | 2023-08-01 | - | 0.08 | 0.13 | +62.50 | 210.66M | 216.30M | +2.67 | +7.19 | +3.38 |
| - | 2023-05-02 | - | 0.09 | 0.15 | +66.67 | - | - | - | +4.01 | +0.66 |
FWRG Earnings Analysis
Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-11-04. The company achieved an EPS of 0.05, compared to analyst estimates of 0.08 by -37.50% . Revenue for the quarter reached 316.02M compared to expectations of 309.57M by 2.09% .
The stock price reacted with a 11.04% one-day change and a 8.45% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in First Watch Restaurant Group Inc growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.
FWRG Earnings Forecast
Looking ahead, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc(FWRG) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 321.53M and an EPS of 0.08.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Upward by 0.78%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Upward by 0.47%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Upward by 0.88% . These revisions correlate with a -2.69% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in First Watch Restaurant Group Inc long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.
Estimate Revision
The chart shows the correlation between FWRG's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
+0.78%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
+0.47%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Upward
+0.88%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Down
-2.69%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.23B
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EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:0.20
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Stock Price18.09
FWRG Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-11-04,Pre-Market):
EPS: 0.05 (Actual) vs.0.08 (Estimate) (-37.50%)
Revenue: 316.02M (Actual) vs. 309.57M (Estimate) (2.09%)
Price Reaction: 11.04%(1-Day), 8.45%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-05,Pre-Market):
EPS: 0.03 (Actual) vs.0.07 (Estimate) (-57.14%)
Revenue: 307.89M (Actual) vs. 306.55M (Estimate) (0.44%)
Price Reaction: 3.54%(1-Day), 2.44%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-06,Pre-Market):
EPS: -0.01 (Actual) vs.0.04 (Estimate) (-125.00%)
Revenue: 282.24M (Actual) vs. 283.28M (Estimate) (-0.37%)
Price Reaction: -17.62%(1-Day), -15.26%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how FWRG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, FWRG sees a +3.61% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.33% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.32%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 1.93% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -7.33% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
Transcript Summary
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-11-04
The earnings call highlights a strong revenue growth forecast, increased EBITDA guidance, and effective marketing strategies. Despite some inflationary pressures, the company is managing costs well and expects continued growth with new restaurant openings. The Q&A section reveals confidence in marketing efforts and competitive advantages in securing locations. Overall, the sentiment is positive, with a focus on expansion and customer engagement, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-08-05
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong revenue growth, successful marketing strategies, and effective cost management, despite some uncertainties in guidance and EBITDA. The company's strategic initiatives, like new restaurant openings and enhanced customer experience, coupled with positive same-restaurant sales and traffic trends, contribute to a positive outlook. The market cap suggests a moderate stock price reaction, leading to a positive sentiment rating.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-05-06
Despite revenue growth and positive traffic trends in March and April, the company faces challenges with rising costs, declining margins, and a net loss. The lack of a share repurchase program and unclear management responses further dampen sentiment. The market cap indicates a potential for stronger reactions, but the overall negative aspects, such as increased expenses and lower operating profit margins, outweigh the positives, suggesting a stock price decline of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-03-12
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While total revenue increased by 16.8% and adjusted EBITDA improved, same-restaurant sales and traffic declined, indicating potential underlying issues. Management's optimism about future marketing and restaurant openings is tempered by economic pressures and higher commodity costs, including tariffs. The lack of a share repurchase program and unclear responses in the Q&A section contribute to uncertainty. Given the small-cap nature of the company, these mixed signals suggest a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-03-11
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and EBITDA improvements are offset by negative same-restaurant sales and competitive pressures. The Q&A reveals cautious optimism, with management noting positive trends but avoiding specifics on inflation impacts. The lack of a share repurchase program and no major positive catalysts like new partnerships tempers enthusiasm. Given the small market cap, the stock might see volatility, but overall, the sentiment leans towards neutral, with no strong catalysts to suggest a significant move in either direction.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Summary
Neutral
2024-11-10
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there are positive signs like improved customer experience, increased revenue, and positive in-restaurant traffic trends, there are concerns about labor challenges, negative same-restaurant sales, and lack of a shareholder return plan. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in consumer trends and vague management responses. Given the market cap, these mixed signals suggest a neutral stock price movement, with no strong catalysts for significant positive or negative changes in the short term.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-08-06
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: strong revenue and EBITDA growth are offset by declining same-restaurant sales and traffic, and a lack of share repurchase plans. Adjusted guidance indicates a cautious outlook. Q&A insights reveal management's optimism about Florida and new stores, but economic factors and lower-income consumer trends pose risks. Given the company's small market cap, the stock may experience volatility. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with potential for slight positive movement if new restaurant performance continues to excel.
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FAQ
What were the key highlights of FWRG’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?
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