Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the dominant trend remains bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there is no proprietary buy signal to override that.
The small positive MACD is weakening (positive but contracting), suggesting upside momentum is not strong enough to justify chasing.
Options are pricing extreme uncertainty (very high IV) but with almost no actual volume—more “priced risk” than “confirmed bullish positioning.”
With earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) and no near-term catalysts in the news, risk/reward is not attractive to buy immediately at current levels.
Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly above 0 (0.00027) but positively contracting → bullish momentum is fading rather than building.
RSI: RSI_6 at 43.387 (neutral-to-weak) → not oversold enough to suggest a strong mean-reversion buy.
Key levels: Pivot 1.426 is the near-term “line in the sand.” Support S1 1.342 then S2 1.29. Resistance R1 1.51 then R2 1.562.
Price/probability read: Pattern-based projection implies ~60% chance of -1.07% next day; near-flat to mildly positive over week/month (+0.62% / +0.7%), which is not compelling for an immediate entry.
Positioning: Call OI 6,520 vs Put OI 10 → put/call OI ratio effectively 0, but this is distorted by extremely low put open interest (not necessarily “bullish conviction”).
Activity: Total options volume is only 2 contracts today (puts volume 0) → sentiment inference from volume is very weak.
Volatility: 30D IV 176.33% vs historical vol 41.25% (IV percentile 84.06) → options are pricing a large move, often seen around small-cap/event risk, not a calm bullish trend.
Takeaway: Options market is signaling “high uncertainty / tail risk,” not a clear bullish consensus.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
0
Positive Catalysts
Upcoming earnings: 2026-02-26 after hours could act as a volatility/catalyst event.
Losses have been narrowing YoY (net loss improved; EPS improved), which can help sentiment if the next print confirms progress.
Price is near the pivot (1.426); a clean reclaim/hold above pivot with follow-through could set up a short-term bounce toward 1.51.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Revenue is still slightly down YoY (2025/Q3), and gross margin also declined YoY → fundamental momentum is not clearly improving.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $35.065M, -0.97% YoY (slight contraction; not a growth profile right now).
Net income: -$2.315M, improved 5.32% YoY (loss narrowing).
EPS: -$0.03, improved 50% YoY (still negative, but trending better).
No analyst rating trend or price target change data was provided in the dataset, so recent Wall Street upgrades/downgrades cannot be confirmed here.
Wall Street-style pros (based on available fundamentals): improving loss/EPS trend could support a turnaround narrative.
Wall Street-style cons: revenue still declining slightly and gross margin compression suggest the core business is not yet demonstrating clean, durable operating leverage.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXFY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXFY is 5 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXFY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXFY is 5 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.390
Low
5
Averages
5
High
5
Current: 1.390
Low
5
Averages
5
High
5
Lake Street
Eric Martinuzzi
Buy
downgrade
$5
AI Analysis
2025-05-09
Reason
Lake Street
Eric Martinuzzi
Price Target
$5
AI Analysis
2025-05-09
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Lake Street analyst Eric Martinuzzi lowered the firm's price target on Expensify to $4.50 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after Q1 results came in "slightly below on revenue and well below on AEBITDA." The firm expects 2025 will be "another year of solid cash generation," but a challenging macro environment continues to show in the contraction of the paid membership count.
