EFC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how EFC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, EFC sees a -0.55% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.24% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.08%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
EFC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
108.66M
14.06%
-4.96%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
-8.80%
-146.17%
-119.56%
Net Margin
28.22%
39.08%
38.33%
EPS
0.25
47.06%
38.89%
No Data Available
EFC Earnings Analysis
Ellington Financial Inc Corporation (EFC.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Q4 Performance: Q4 was a very strong quarter for Ellington Financial, capping off a very successful 2024.
Net Income and Earnings Growth: Generated net income of $0.25 per share and adjusted distributable earnings increased by $0.05 per share sequentially to $0.45 per share, comfortably covering quarterly dividends of $0.39 per share.
Loan Portfolio Expansion: Loan portfolios and sourcing channels expanded, with closed-end second lien HELOC, proprietary reverse, and commercial mortgage bridge loan portfolios growing by a combined 39%.
Securitization Transactions Success: Completed four securitization transactions across three different product lines, capitalizing on the tightest securitization spreads seen all year.
Reverse Mortgage Success: Longbridge reverse mortgage segment performed excellently, becoming one of the largest originators of proprietary reverse mortgages, providing good pricing power.
Balance Sheet Enhancement: Strengthened the liability side of the balance sheet by executing on securitizations, improving warehouse lines, and redeeming high-cost debt and preferred stock.
Market Share Expansion: Increased market share in non-QM loans due to numerous originator investments and relationships fostered over many years.
Loan Portfolio Growth: Achieved a 5% increase in adjusted loan credit portfolio to $3.42 billion driven by net purchases of closed-end seconds, HELOCs, commercial mortgage bridge loans, and non-agency RMBS.
Fourth Quarter Economic Return: Total economic return for the fourth quarter was 1.8% non-annualized, with book value per common share standing at $13.52.
Strategic Diversification for Stability: Diversification across multiple dimensions, including asset types, mortgage types, and duration, has been key to success and stability.
Negative
Agency Strategy Loss: In the fourth quarter, the agency strategy generated a modest loss due to rising interest rates and volatility around the presidential election, which negatively impacted Agency RMBS performance relative to hedging instruments.
Net Losses on Loans: There were modest net losses on non-QM loans and retained tranches, commercial mortgage loans, and consumer loans, driven by a slight decline in credit performance.
Residential Loan Delinquency Increase: The company experienced an uptick in residential loan delinquencies, particularly in the non-QM portfolio, attributed to larger loan sizes and higher mortgage rates, leading to greater likelihood of delinquency.
Loan Default Resolution Delays: The resolution processes for three significant loans in default are more protracted and expensive than initially anticipated, delaying the redeployment of resolution proceeds.
Low Economic Return: The total economic return for the fourth quarter was only 1.8% non-annualized, indicating a relatively low performance compared to expectations.
Portfolio Decline Challenges: The Longbridge portfolio decreased by 15% sequentially, as the impact of the proprietary reverse mortgage securitization exceeded new originations, suggesting challenges in maintaining growth in that segment.
EFC FAQs
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EFC Earning Call Sentiment
Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
EFC.N
-0.45%Positive
The earnings call summary highlights strong financial performance, including a 25% increase in the credit portfolio and reduced borrowing rates. Despite some concerns about delinquencies, management remains optimistic about the non-QM market. The Q&A section revealed analysts' positive sentiment towards Longbridge's earnings potential and the company's strategic focus on high-yielding opportunities. The market cap indicates a moderate reaction to these positive factors, leading to a predicted stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
