The recent tariff threats between the U.S. and the EU have created significant uncertainty in the market, particularly impacting European alcohol stocks. Diageo (DEO), as a major player in the industry, has seen its stock price decline slightly due to these tensions. However, the impact has been less severe compared to other European competitors, as DEO has a diversified portfolio with significant exposure to the U.S. market.
Diageo's stock is currently trading at $107.04 as of March 21, 2025. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the RSI (6) at 38.58, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD is also negative, suggesting bearish momentum. The stock is trading below its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, which further reinforces the bearish outlook.
The Fibonacci levels indicate a potential support level at $103.79 and a resistance level at $112.72. These levels will be critical in determining the stock's movement in the coming week.
Analysts have mixed opinions on Diageo. Bernstein has maintained a Buy rating with a price target of £27.70, while Deutsche Bank has upgraded the stock to Hold. This mixed sentiment suggests that while there is some optimism about Diageo's long-term prospects, there are also concerns about the current market conditions.
Based on the technical analysis and the current market conditions, Diageo's stock is expected to trade between $104 and $112 in the next trading week. The exact price prediction is challenging, but considering the support and resistance levels, the stock is likely to hover around $108.
Given the current technical indicators and the mixed analyst sentiment, it is recommended to Sell Diageo (DEO) stock in the next trading week. The bearish trend and the potential resistance at $112.72 suggest that the stock may face downward pressure. However, if the stock reaches the support level of $103.79, it could be a good opportunity to buy.
Target Price: $104
Stop-Loss: $112.72
The price of DEO is predicted to go up -27.43%, based on the high correlation periods with SHPH. The similarity of these two price pattern on the periods is 92.51%.
DEO
SHPH
Across the U.S., Diageo's distributors have more than 2,800 dedicated salespeople focused solely on the company's products. This sizable support base has contributed to above-average operating margins in this highly profitable region.
Premium distilled spirits is an affordable luxury category that should benefit from long-term demand growth from aspirational and high-income consumers.
We believe the book value of equity is understated by at least GBP 3 billion, owing to the undervaluing of maturing inventory, which is recognized on the balance sheet at cost.