The chart below shows how COCO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, COCO sees a +1.43% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +8.79% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.55%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Coconut Water Market Surge: Coconut water remains one of the fastest growing categories in the beverage aisle, delivering double-digit volume growth in major markets, resulting in record year for the category and the company in net sales, net income, and adjusted EBITDA.
Coconut Water Growth Trends: In the U.S., the coconut water category grew in household adoption by 9% and household buy rate by over 7%, reflecting strong consumer interest related to health and wellness trends.
Brand Growth Comparison: The Vita Coco brand grew 9% in retail dollars in the U.S. and 21% in the U.K., outpacing category growth of 14% and 19% respectively.
Branded Retail Growth Acceleration: Branded retail dollar growth accelerated to 9% in the fourth quarter, with a year-to-date branded scan growth of 20% for the last 13-week period ending 2/16/2025.
Strong Consumer Demand Growth: Vita Coco Juice saw U.S. scans increase by 42% for the full year, outgrowing the can segment of the category by 2x, indicating strong consumer demand.
Product Launch Success: The introduction of the Vita Coco Coconut Water one liter pack has been successful, becoming one of the highest performing items in a key convenience store chain.
National Launch Success: Vita Coco Treats, a new coconut milk-based beverage, is rolling out nationally with strong retailer distribution commitments, indicating positive market reception.
Distribution Agreement Extension: The company extended its distribution agreement with Keurig Dr Pepper, reinforcing a strong partnership that has lasted 15 years.
International Business Expansion: The international business is performing well, particularly in Europe, with the U.K. and Germany showing significant growth, indicating potential for further expansion in underdeveloped markets.
Strong Cash Position: The company entered 2025 with a strong cash position of $165 million and no debt, reflecting financial stability and capacity for growth.
Negative
Inventory Shortages Impact: - The company faced significant inventory shortages in the summer due to limited ocean container availability, which hampered third quarter shipments and negatively affected service levels.
Gross Margin Decline: - Fourth quarter gross margins decreased relative to prior quarters, primarily due to more expensive ocean freight costs.
Sales Impact from Region Loss: - The company expects to lose some regions with certain private label retailers during 2025, which will impact shipments and sales.
Private Label Sales Decline: - The transition out of private label coconut oil negatively affected private label sales, which decreased by 10% year-over-year.
Sales Decline Impact: - Walmart's store reset resulted in mid-teen declines in weekly store sales for Vita Coco, negatively impacting total reported U.S. scan performance.
Increased Cost Projections: - The company anticipates slightly higher finished goods costs and higher average ocean freight rates for the year relative to 2024, especially in the first quarter.
Tax Rate Increase: - The effective tax rate increased to 21% from 19% due to a mix of pre-tax profits and higher non-deductible expenses.
Tariff Impact on Costs: - The company has not included any potential impact from tariffs in their guidance, which could affect costs and pricing if applied to coconut water sourced from certain countries.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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