The chart below shows how CNX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CNX sees a +2.61% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.88% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.19%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Strong Free Cash Flow: Q4 2024 free cash flow reached $30 million, demonstrating strong financial performance and effective cash management.
Cost Management Efficiency: The company maintained a run rate spending below $500 million, driven by efficiencies from Utica CPA development and a low decline PDP base, indicating strong cost management.
CMM Hydrogen Production Validation: Successful validation of coal mine methane (CMM) as a low carbon intensity feedstock for hydrogen production, opening new revenue opportunities in the hydrogen economy.
Utica Growth Potential: The Apex acquisition added 8,600 net acres of undeveloped Utica, providing significant growth potential in future production.
Market Activity Acceleration Potential: The company is positioned to accelerate activity in the second half of 2025 if market conditions remain favorable, indicating flexibility and responsiveness to market dynamics.
Negative
Free Cash Flow Decline: Free cash flow for Q4 2024 was reported at $30 million, but guidance indicates a decline in free cash flow for 2025, suggesting potential financial strain ahead.
Production Volume Decline: The company anticipates modest declines in production volumes in the second half of 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining output levels and potential revenue impacts.
High Operating Expenses Impact Growth: Operating expenses are projected to remain high, with a run rate spending goal of sub-$500 million, which may limit capital flexibility for growth initiatives.
CMM Business Challenges: The coal mine methane (CMM) business faces uncertainty due to overly restrictive regulatory rules, which could hinder future revenue generation and investment opportunities.
Buyback Activity Concerns: The company has not engaged in buyback activity in Q1 2025, raising concerns about capital allocation strategies amidst uncertain market conditions.
Earnings call transcript: CNX Resources Q4 2024 reveals earnings miss
CNX.N
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