The chart below shows how CGAU performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CGAU sees a +2.79% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.97% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.73%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Consistent Production Results: Steady operational performance with over 73,000 ounces of gold and 12.8 million pounds of copper produced in Q4 2024.
Free Cash Flow Strength: Strong free cash flow generated from operations, increasing cash balance to $625 million.
Free Cash Flow Generation: Öksüt mine generated over $480 million of free cash flow since its restart in June 2023.
Molybdenum Operations Restart: Restart of operations at Thompson Creek and ramp-up at Langeloth marks a significant step in U.S. Molybdenum operations.
Mount Milligan Pre-Feasibility Progress: Mount Milligan's technical studies are progressing better than planned, leading to a pre-feasibility study for the mine.
Regulatory Progress for Minerals: Encouraging developments in British Columbia's regulatory environment for critical mineral projects, including Mount Milligan.
Resource Potential and Infrastructure: Kemess property has substantial gold and copper resources with significant existing infrastructure, indicating potential for future production.
Government Engagement Success: Successful engagement with government authorities for permitting and environmental compliance at Mount Milligan and Öksüt.
Strong Financial Performance: Strong financial performance with adjusted net earnings of $37 million in Q4 2024 and cash flow from operations of $93 million.
Shareholder Returns Strategy: Active share buybacks and a quarterly dividend declared, returning $88 million to shareholders in 2024.
Negative
Gold Production Underperformance: In Q4 2024, Centerra Gold produced over 73,000 ounces of gold, which was near the low end of their consolidated production guidance range, indicating underperformance in production targets.
Production Performance Challenges: Mount Milligan's full year production was over 167,000 ounces of gold and 54 million pounds of copper, which was below guidance due to lower grades encountered, reflecting operational challenges.
Rising Operational Costs: Öksüt's all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,327 per ounce in Q4, higher than the previous quarter due to lower sales and increased royalty costs, indicating rising operational costs.
AISC Increase Forecast: The all-in sustaining costs for 2025 at Öksüt are expected to be $1,475 to $1,575 per ounce, up year-over-year primarily due to a lower production profile and inflation in Turkey, suggesting increased financial pressure.
Free Cash Flow Deficit: The Molybdenum business unit reported a free cash flow deficit of $35 million in Q4, mainly due to spending on the Thompson Creek restart, highlighting financial strain in this segment.
Cost Efficiency Challenges: Consolidated all-in sustaining costs for Q4 were $1,296 per ounce, which, while in line with guidance, still reflects the challenges in maintaining cost efficiency across operations.
Rising Sustaining Costs: The anticipated increase in consolidated all-in sustaining costs for 2025 to $1,400 to $1,500 per ounce indicates a trend of rising costs that could impact profitability.
Capital Investment Challenges: The restart of Thompson Creek is projected to require significant capital investment, which may strain cash flow and resources, especially given the current financial commitments.
Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE:CGAU) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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