Stock Price & Analysis

Analysis and Insights

To determine whether it's a good time to buy or sell Black Stone Minerals (BSM) stock, we need to analyze both technical and fundamental factors.

Fundamental Analysis:

Black Stone Minerals (BSM) is a leading player in the oil and gas industry, with a focus on mineral and royalty interests. The company has shown resilience in its operations, maintaining production guidance and distributions despite challenges in 2024. Key points include:

• Earnings and Revenue: BSM is expected to report its quarterly earnings on February 24, with analysts predicting revenue of $111.9 million and earnings per share of $0.37.
• Insider Activity: There have been two insider trades in the past six months, with one purchase and one sale. Institutional investors are divided, with 72 increasing holdings and 77 reducing theirs.
• Q4 Performance: BSM reported Q4 revenue of $83.73 million, down from the previous year, but maintained its quarterly distribution of $0.375 per unit.
• 2025 Outlook: The company anticipates growth due to stronger gas pricing and increased activity in key areas, with production guidance of 38–41 MBoe/d, representing a 2% growth over 2024.

Technical Analysis:

The technical indicators for BSM stock show a neutral to slightly bullish trend:

• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BSM is 58.10, indicating a neutral position and no immediate signs of overbuying or overselling.
• MACD: The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, suggesting a bullish signal.
• Fibonacci Levels: The stock is currently trading near the lower end of its Fibonacci resistance levels, with key resistance at 15.44 and 15.65.

Valuation Analysis:

BSM's valuation metrics indicate a stable position, with a focus on maintaining distributions and production guidance. The stock's current price of $15.25 is near its Fibonacci pivot point of $15.11, suggesting potential support at this level.

Analyst Sentiment:

The latest analyst rating for BSM is a "Hold" with a price target increase from $14 to $16, indicating moderate confidence in the stock's stability and potential for modest growth.

Conclusion:

Based on the analysis, BSM stock appears to be in a stable position with potential for growth, especially if the company's future outlook is positive. However, the mixed institutional activity and upcoming earnings report add some uncertainty. It might be wise to hold your position unless there's a significant change in the company's fundamentals or market conditions.

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BSM stock is predicted to reach $17–$19 in 2025, driven by stronger gas pricing and increased production activity. The company expects positive growth with production guidance of 38–41 MBoe/d, up 2% from 2024. Analysts anticipate revenue of $111.9 million and earnings of $0.37 per share, supporting the bullish outlook.

The S1 support level for BSM Stock is $14.92 ,The R1 resistant level for BSM Stock is $15.46.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-28, the price of BSM Stock was $15.21.

The target price for BSM Stock according to analyst rating is 17.50, with the highest price target at 19.00 and the lowest at 16.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on BSM Stock overall.

The market cap of BSM is $3.2B.

Black Stone Minerals (BSM) appears to be overvalued based on several factors:

1. Declining Financials: BSM's Q4 2024 revenue and net income dropped significantly compared to previous periods, indicating potential underlying issues.

2. High Valuation Metrics: The stock's EV/EBITDA and PS ratios are elevated, suggesting the stock might be overpriced relative to its earnings and revenue.

3. Mixed Analyst Sentiment: While some analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating, the lack of strong buy recommendations and the maintained price targets suggest limited upside.

4. Insider Activity: The mix of buying and selling by insiders doesn't indicate strong confidence, adding to the uncertainty.

5. Technical Indicators: Although not overbought, the stock's momentum isn't strong, and without clear signs of reversal, the risk remains.

In conclusion, considering the high valuation, declining financial performance, and mixed sentiment, BSM may be overvalued, making it a cautious investment at current levels.

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. is an owner and manager of oil and natural gas mineral interests in the United States. The Company's principal business is maximizing the value of its existing mineral and royalty assets through active management and expanding its asset base through acquisitions of additional mineral and royalty interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.8 million gross acres. It also owns nonparticipating royalty interests (NPRIs) in 1.8 million gross acres and overriding royalty interests (ORRIs) in 1.6 million gross acres. The Company owns mineral and royalty interests in 41 states in the continental United States, including all of the onshore producing basins. Many of these interests are in active resource plays, including the Haynesville/Bossier shales in East Texas/Western Louisiana, the Wolfcamp/Spraberry/Bone Springs in the Permian Basin, the Bakken/Three Forks in the Williston Basin, and the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas.

BSM stock is predicted to reach $18 by 2030, driven by potential growth trends and breaking above resistance levels. The stock currently shows neutral technical indicators with slight bullish signals.

BSM has a total of 108 employees.