AXSM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AXSM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AXSM sees a -5.83% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.99% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.92%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AXSM Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
118.77M
66.04%
13.37%
Gross Margin
89.79%
2.69%
-0.69%
Operating Margin
-51.89%
-32.59%
17.58%
Net Margin
-63.08%
-54.26%
2.29%
EPS
-1.54
-25.96%
14.93%
No Data Available
AXSM Earnings Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics Inc Corporation (AXSM.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
CNS Leadership Expansion: Axsome has expanded its leadership within CNS with a portfolio of three in-market products and three innovative candidates in regulatory submission stage, positioning for potential commercialization of seven products by 2027.
Strong Revenue Growth: Total net product revenue for 2024 was $386 million, reflecting high double-digit year-over-year growth for Auvelity and Sunosi, indicating strong market performance.
Blockbuster Sales Potential: Auvelity is on track to reach blockbuster potential, with net product sales of $291.4 million for the full year of 2024, representing 124% year-over-year growth.
New Migraine Treatment Approval: The recent US approval of Symbravo for migraine treatment adds a novel product to Axsome's portfolio, enhancing its market offerings.
R&D Milestones and Trials: In 2024, Axsome read out five pivotal trials and initiated three Phase 3 trials, demonstrating strong R&D execution and positioning for significant milestones in 2025.
Pipeline Development Plans: The company plans to submit NDAs for AXS-05 and AXS-12 in the second half of 2025, based on positive results from their clinical programs, indicating a robust pipeline.
Market Demand Leadership: Auvelity led the market in total demand growth in Q4 2024, with approximately 158,000 prescriptions, showcasing strong adoption and market penetration.
Sunosi Prescription Growth: Sunosi also showed growth with approximately 49,000 prescriptions in Q4 2024, reflecting a stable and growing demand in its market segment.
Digital Commercialization Success: Axsome's digital-centric commercialization platform has driven consistent growth across its portfolio, enhancing awareness and utilization of its products.
Negative
Earnings Miss Reported: Axsome Therapeutics missed earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $-1.54, compared to the expected $-0.97.
Net Loss Analysis: The net loss for Q4 2024 was $74.9 million, which is an increase from a net loss of $98.7 million in Q4 2023, indicating ongoing financial struggles.
Net Loss Increase: For the full year 2024, the net loss was $287.2 million, compared to $239.2 million in 2023, showing a worsening financial position year-over-year.
Rising R&D Expenses: Research and development expenses increased significantly to $55 million for Q4 2024, up from $30.8 million in Q4 2023, indicating rising costs without immediate returns.
Rising SG&A Expenses: Selling, general and administrative expenses also rose sharply to $113.3 million for Q4 2024, compared to $86.8 million in Q4 2023, reflecting increased commercialization costs without proportional revenue growth.
Cash Reserves Decrease: The company ended 2024 with $315.4 million in cash, down from $386.2 million at the end of 2023, suggesting a depletion of cash reserves that could impact future operations.
Gross-to-Net Discount Impact: Auvelity and Sunosi experienced a gross-to-net (GTN) discount of approximately 50% in Q4 2024, with expectations of mid-50% discounts in Q1 2025 due to negative seasonality effects, which could affect profitability.
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AXSM Earning Call Sentiment
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AXSM.O
0.75%Positive
The earnings call reveals mixed signals. The company shows growth in product revenue and reduced net loss, but increased expenses and cash burn are concerning. The Q&A section highlights management's vague responses and uncertainties around key products, which could create investor apprehension. Despite strong revenue and growth potential, the lack of clear guidance and high expenses offset positive sentiments, suggesting a neutral stock price movement.
