AXL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AXL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AXL sees a -0.84% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.27% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.14%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AXL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.38B
-5.62%
-8.25%
Gross Margin
9.67%
5.91%
-3.30%
Operating Margin
3.22%
24.81%
-13.21%
Net Margin
-0.99%
-24.43%
-250.00%
EPS
-0.11
-31.25%
-237.50%
No Data Available
AXL Earnings Analysis
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc Corporation (AXL.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Sales Performance: AAM reported strong sales of $1.4 billion in Q4 2024 and approximately $6.1 billion for the full year, indicating solid revenue performance.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $161 million, representing 11.6% of sales, and for the full year, it was $749 million, or 12.2% of sales, showing consistent profitability.
Strong Cash Generation: AAM achieved adjusted free cash flow of $79 million in Q4 and $230 million for the full year, exceeding their original targets and demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities.
Contract Extension Secured: The company secured a contract extension to supply power transfer units for Ford Maverick and Bronco Sport vehicles, ensuring a stable core business for the future.
Strategic Market Enhancement: AAM's strategic combination with Dowlais is expected to create a leading global driveline and metal-forming supplier, enhancing market position and operational scale.
Strong Financial Outlook: The company anticipates a strong financial outlook for 2025, targeting sales between $5.8 billion and $6.05 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $700 million to $760 million, indicating growth potential.
Debt Reduction and Leverage Improvement: AAM's net debt decreased to $2.1 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 2.8 times, reflecting improved financial health and reduced debt burden.
Negative
Net Loss Comparison: AAM reported a GAAP net loss of $13.7 million in Q4 2024, compared to a net loss of $19.1 million in Q4 2023, indicating ongoing financial struggles.
Q4 Sales Decline: Sales in Q4 2024 decreased to $1.38 billion from $1.46 billion in Q4 2023, reflecting a decline in North American production by approximately 3%.
EBITDA Decline Year-Over-Year: Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2024 was $160.8 million, down from $169.5 million in Q4 2023, showing a decrease in profitability year-over-year.
Sales Decrease Anticipated: The company anticipates a decrease in sales for 2025, targeting a range of $5.8 billion to $6.05 billion, which is lower than the previous year's performance.
Earnings Per Share Loss: AAM's adjusted earnings per share in Q4 2024 was a loss of $0.06, although it improved from a loss of $0.09 in Q4 2023, indicating persistent challenges in achieving profitability.
Increased Cash Tax Projections: The company expects higher cash taxes in 2025, estimated to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million, which is approximately $15 million higher than 2024.
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Decline: AAM's adjusted free cash flow for 2025 is projected to be lower than in 2024, with a target of approximately $200 million to $230 million, reflecting increased capital expenditures and restructuring payments.
AXL FAQs
How does AXL typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
AXL Earning Call Sentiment
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AXL.N
-9.62%Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with strong financial performance, improved EPS, and increased free cash flow. The sale of the India business and focus on EV components are strategic moves. Despite slight revenue decline, the company's guidance remains optimistic. The Q&A revealed positive customer reception and strategic market positioning, although some responses were vague. Overall, the company's debt reduction and liquidity position are strong, suggesting a potential stock price increase.
