ASTL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ASTL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ASTL sees a +4.36% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.61% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.25%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ASTL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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ASTL Earnings Analysis
Algoma Steel Group Inc Corporation (ASTL.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Employee Safety Improvements: Employee safety remains a top priority, with significant improvements in lost time injury performance throughout 2024.
Strong Financial Position: The company has a strong balance sheet with over $267 million in cash and total liquidity of $630 million, ensuring funding for the EAF project.
Plate Shipment Increase: Plate shipments increased to approximately 82,000 tons in Q4 2024, up from 73,000 tons in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in production.
EAF Project Milestone: The EAF project is on track, with first steel production expected in April 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company.
EAF Project Investment Update: Cumulative investment in the EAF project reached $740 million, with no changes to the expected final budget, demonstrating effective project management.
Operational Efficiency Improvement: The company is positioned to improve operational efficiency with the EAF project, which will enhance its ability to navigate market uncertainties in the long term.
Resilience in Production Growth: Despite market challenges, the company has maintained a focus on safe operations and ramped up plate production, showcasing resilience and commitment to growth.
Negative
Decline in Financial Performance: Softer realized steel prices and higher costs led to an overall decline in revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and cash flow generation compared to the prior year.
Q4 2024 EBITDA Loss: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was a loss of $60.3 million, indicating significant financial strain.
Declining Net Sales Realization: Net sales realization averaged $976 per ton, down from $1,079 per ton in the prior year, reflecting weakening market conditions.
Steel Revenue Decline: Steel revenue decreased by 3.8% in Q4 2024 compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower realized prices despite higher shipments.
Operating Cash Flow Decline: Cash used in operating activities totaled $76.9 million in Q4 2024, compared to a use of $47 million in the prior year, indicating worsening cash flow issues.
EBITDA Decline Analysis: For the full year 2024, adjusted EBITDA was $22.3 million, a drastic drop from $319 million in 2023, highlighting a severe decline in profitability.
Steel Product Cost Increase: The cost of steel products sold averaged $1,054 per ton, an increase of 7.4% over the prior year, driven by higher variable costs and lower shipment volume.
Shipment Volume Decline: The company expects shipment volumes in Q1 2025 to be sequentially lower than Q4 2024, likely in the mid 400,000 ton range, indicating ongoing demand challenges.
Market Challenges from Trade Uncertainty: Trade uncertainty and tariffs have introduced significant challenges, impacting customer buying behavior and overall market conditions.
ASTL FAQs
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ASTL Earning Call Sentiment
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
ASTL.O
1.97%Positive
The earnings call reveals significant challenges: declining revenues, increased costs, and operational issues. Despite some optimism for future production and market share growth, the lack of shareholder return plans and negative financial metrics weigh heavily. The Q&A highlights tariff concerns and unclear management responses, adding to uncertainties. Although there is potential for future recovery, the current outlook is negative due to the immediate financial strain and market conditions.
