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01/09 22:51
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: while financial performance shows strong gross margins and a significant share repurchase program, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and supply chain challenges pose risks. The Q&A session indicates confidence in future growth, but management's lack of clarity on key metrics and the impact of tariffs adds to uncertainty. Despite a positive dividend announcement, the overall sentiment remains neutral, reflecting a balance between positive financial metrics and external challenges.
Total Net Sales EUR7.7 billion, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Net System Sales EUR5.7 billion, no year-over-year change mentioned.
EUV Sales EUR3.2 billion, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Non-EUV Sales EUR2.5 billion, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Installed Base Management Sales EUR2.0 billion, no year-over-year change mentioned.
Gross Margin 54%, up from previous guidance, driven by customer productivity milestones on installed EUV systems and a favorable EUV product mix.
Operating Expenses R&D expenses at EUR1.161 billion and SG&A expenses at EUR281 million, in line with guidance.
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%, expected to be around 17% for 2025.
Net Income EUR2.4 billion, representing 30.4% of total net sales, resulting in an EPS of EUR6.31, up from expectations of EUR6.12.
Free Cash Flow Minus EUR475 million, due to customer payment dynamics and continued investments in fixed assets.
Net System Bookings EUR3.9 billion, with EUR1.2 billion from EUV and EUR2.8 billion from non-EUV, weighted towards Logic at 60%.
Dividend EUR1.52 per ordinary share for Q1 2025, part of a total dividend of EUR6.40 per ordinary share for 2024.
Share Repurchase EUR2.7 billion in shares purchased in Q1 2025.
EUV Product Portfolio: Achieved important milestones on both Low NA and High NA platforms, with the Low NA NXE:3800E upgraded to 220 wafers per hour configuration and supporting high volume manufacturing.
High NA System Introduction: Shipped fifth and final NXE:5000 High NA system in Q1, with NXE:5200 model expected to ship from Q2 2025.
Market Growth Drivers: Growth in Artificial Intelligence remains a key driver for growth in the semiconductor industry, with expectations of increased revenue from Logic and Memory.
Revenue Outlook: Expected revenue for 2025 is between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion, with 2026 anticipated to be a growth year.
Installed Base Management Revenue: Expected to grow compared to 2024, driven by increasing service levels and contributions from EUV and upgrade business.
Gross Margin Expectations: For Q2, gross margin expected to be between 50% and 53%, with full year gross margin expected between 51% and 53%.
Tariff Impact: Facing elevated uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which may have direct and indirect implications for business.
Product Mix Shift: Expecting a shift towards advanced Logic and DRAM due to end market dynamics.
Tariff Uncertainty: ASML is currently facing an elevated level of uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which may have both direct and indirect implications for the business. The direct impact includes tariffs on new system sales, upgrades to U.S. customers, and imports of materials and parts for U.S. operations. The indirect impact on end market demand is complex and currently indeterminate.
Economic Environment: There is increasing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, as reported by many experts and businesses, which could affect ASML's revenue and growth expectations.
Supply Chain Challenges: The ongoing discussions regarding tariffs may lead to supply chain challenges, impacting the import of parts and tools necessary for operations.
Market Demand Fluctuations: There is uncertainty regarding customer demand, which could lead to fluctuations in revenue, particularly in the context of AI demand and the overall economic climate.
Gross Margin Variability: The expected gross margin for Q2 is larger than usual due to uncertainties around tariffs, which may affect the value chain absorption of these costs.
EUV Product Portfolio: Achieved important milestones on both Low NA and High NA platforms, providing a comprehensive EUV product portfolio to support customer roadmap requirements.
Installed Base Management Revenue: Expected to grow compared to 2024, driven by increasing service levels and contributions from EUV and upgrade business.
Technology Insertion Phases: Customers are currently in phase one of High NA technology insertion, with expectations for phases two and three to occur in 2026 and 2027.
Revenue Opportunity: Expected 2030 revenue opportunity between EUR44 billion and EUR60 billion, with gross margin between 56% and 60%.
2025 Revenue Guidance: Expected revenue between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion for 2025.
Q2 2025 Revenue Guidance: Expected Q2 total net sales to be between EUR7.2 billion and EUR7.7 billion.
Q2 Gross Margin Guidance: Expected gross margin for Q2 to be between 50% and 53%.
2025 Gross Margin Guidance: Continue to expect gross margin for the full year between 51% and 53%.
Effective Tax Rate: Expected annualized effective tax rate of around 17% for 2025.
Interim Dividend Q1 2025: ASML paid the third quarterly interim dividend over 2024 of EUR1.52 per ordinary share.
Total Dividend for 2024: The total dividend for the year 2024 is proposed to be EUR6.40 per ordinary share.
Share Repurchase Program: In Q1 2025, ASML purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR2.7 billion.
The earnings call and Q&A highlight strong revenue growth expectations driven by AI demand, a significant increase in EUV capacity, and optimistic long-term revenue goals. Although there are challenges, such as margin dilution from High-NA tools and declining China revenue, the overall guidance is optimistic with a positive outlook for both DRAM and logic markets. Additionally, the focus on advanced packaging and AI developments provides a promising future. Despite some uncertainty in management responses, the positive factors outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 10% YoY revenue increase and a 1.2% gross margin improvement. The positive sentiment is bolstered by a 10% dividend increase and a new €6 billion share buyback program. The partnership with Mistral AI and optimistic guidance for Q4 and 2025 further enhance the outlook. Despite a potential decline in Chinese demand, the overall market trends and strategic partnerships suggest a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call shows strong financial performance with net sales at the upper end of guidance and gross margin above expectations. Despite a shift in EUV growth and lower unit shipments, the upgrade business and High NA tools offer value. The dividend and share buyback plans are positive, while AI drives demand. The Q&A highlights cautious customer behavior and tariff uncertainties, but overall sentiment remains positive, supported by strong financial metrics and optimistic guidance.
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: while financial performance shows strong gross margins and a significant share repurchase program, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and supply chain challenges pose risks. The Q&A session indicates confidence in future growth, but management's lack of clarity on key metrics and the impact of tariffs adds to uncertainty. Despite a positive dividend announcement, the overall sentiment remains neutral, reflecting a balance between positive financial metrics and external challenges.
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