The chart below shows how ARIS performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ARIS sees a +1.03% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +11.70% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.11%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Record Production Quarter: Q4 was a strong quarter, delivering our highest production for the year of 57,364 ounces.
Net Income and EBITDA: Generated $22,000,000 of net income and $6,000,000 to $7,000,000 of EBITDA in the fourth quarter.
Cost Reduction and Margin Increase: Reduced all in sustaining costs to $1,485,000,000 and achieved an all in sustaining margin of $58,000,000, a 32% increase over Q3.
Production Targets Expansion: Segovia is targeting annual production of 210,000 to 250,000 ounces and 300,000 ounces from 2026 onwards.
Strong Year-End Cash Position: Year-end cash balance of $253,000,000, well positioned and funded to deliver on growth strategy.
Gold Production Expansion Goals: Expect to achieve an annual gold production rate of more than 500,000 ounces once expansions are fully ramped up.
Revenue Increase Driven by Gold: Full revenue of $148,000,000 was up 13% compared to the third quarter driven by higher realized gold price and sales volumes.
Mining Operations Income Surge: Income from mining operations increased 42% quarter over quarter to $54,000,000.
Net Earnings Improvement: Net earnings for Q4 were $21,700,000 compared to a net loss of $2,100,000 in the previous quarter.
Q4 Adjusted Earnings Surge: Adjusted earnings in Q4 were $24,700,000 or $0.14 per share, a significant increase from $13,100,000 or $0.08 per share in Q3.
Quarterly Margin Increase: Quarterly basic margin reached a three-year high of $58,000,000, up 32% from the prior quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance: Generated adjusted EBITDA of $163,100,000 for the full year 2024.
Financing Activities Cash Flow: Cash flow from financing activities in Q4 generated $164,000,000, including $136,000,000 in net proceeds from refinancing bonds.
Segovia Plant Expansion Update: Construction of the Segovia processing plant expansion is on schedule, with Phase one complete and Phase two underway.
Production Rate Target: Expecting to reach production rate of about 300 tonnes per day by the end of 2025, enabling Segovia to produce 210,000 to 250,000 ounces in 2025.
Mine Construction Progress: Marmato Lower Mine construction is advancing, with access roads and accommodation camp completed.
Gold Production Forecast: Expecting Marmato to produce in the range of 200,000 ounces of gold per year after expansions.
Strong Liquidity Position: Strong liquidity of USD $253,000,000 and lower net leverage of 1.5 times, with insignificant near-term debt maturities.
Negative
Earnings Volatility Analysis: Despite a strong Q4, the company reported a net loss of $2,100,000 in Q3, highlighting volatility in earnings.
Marmato Mine Expansion Costs: The total estimated cost to complete the Marmato Lower Mine expansion has increased to $365,000,000, which is $85,000,000 over the previous construction plan, raising concerns about budget overruns.
Rising Sustaining Costs: The company anticipates a significant increase in all-in sustaining costs for 2025, with costs expected to range between $14.50 to $16.00 per ounce for owner mining, which could impact profitability.
Plant Expansion Challenges: The expansion of the Segovia processing plant is still ongoing, and any delays could affect production targets and timelines.
Upper Mine Performance Issues: The company has acknowledged that the performance of the upper mine has not met original expectations, indicating potential operational challenges ahead.
Earnings call transcript: Ares Mining Q4 2024 sees revenue growth, stock surges
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