Should You Buy Applied Therapeutics Inc (APLT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
0.100
1 Day change
2.14%
52 Week Range
1.500
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a Beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to act immediately. APLT is trading like a distressed micro-cap biotech (~$0.095 pre-market) with a bearish primary trend, no proprietary buy signals today, and a recent analyst downgrade tied to balance-sheet risk and potential need for additional Phase 3 studies. This combination makes it an unattractive long-term entry at this moment (despite being technically oversold).
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish: moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling sustained downtrend. RSI(6) at 25.4 indicates oversold conditions (bounce potential), while MACD histogram is above 0 (0.0111) but positively contracting, suggesting any upside momentum is weakening rather than accelerating. Key levels: Pivot ~0.10; nearest support S1 ~0.0941 (current price is sitting right on/near this level) then S2 ~0.0902; resistance R1 ~0.107 and R2 ~0.11. Net: oversold near support inside a bigger downtrend—more consistent with a short-term trade setup than a beginner-friendly long-term entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is extremely call-skewed (OI put/call 0.08; volume put/call 0.04), which typically reflects bullish/speculative sentiment rather than hedging. However, implied volatility is elevated in absolute terms (30D IV ~147.8) while IV percentile/rank is very low (~6–7), implying current IV is low versus its own recent history (after a prior high-vol period). Volume vs average is high (today vs 30D avg ~38x), indicating unusual options attention, but in a penny biotech this can be driven by speculation more than fundamentals.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Technically oversold near support (~0.0941) which can trigger reflex bounces. Options flow is strongly call-leaning (very low put/call ratios), suggesting traders are positioned for upside. Pattern-based projection provided indicates modest positive drift probabilities over 1 week to 1 month (though this is not a fundamental catalyst).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Recent analyst downgrade explicitly citing balance-sheet concerns and the likelihood of needing two additional Phase 3 studies to advance govorestat—this raises dilution/financing risk and extends timelines. Primary price trend remains bearish (downtrend across major moving averages). No supportive news flow in the last week to change the narrative. For long-term beginners, distressed micro-cap biotech risk profile is unfavorable.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to ~$1.0M (+719.67% YoY), but profitability worsened: net income was -$18.99M (down -72.31% YoY) and EPS was -$0.13 (down -72.92% YoY). This reads as early/volatile revenue with continued heavy losses—growth quality is weak and funding needs remain a key concern.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend is negative: on 2025-12-03, Leerink downgraded APLT to Market Perform from Outperform and cut the price target to $1 (from $2), citing balance-sheet concerns and potential need for additional Phase 3 trials. Wall Street pros: if development progresses, upside can be large off a very low base. Wall Street cons: extended clinical path, cash/balance-sheet pressure, and higher probability of dilution—especially problematic for long-term buy-and-hold beginners.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trading trends are neutral with no significant recent activity.
Wall Street analysts forecast APLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLT is 0.25 USD with a low forecast of 0.25 USD and a high forecast of 0.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLT is 0.25 USD with a low forecast of 0.25 USD and a high forecast of 0.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 0.093
Low
0.25
Averages
0.25
High
0.25
Current: 0.093
Low
0.25
Averages
0.25
High
0.25
Leerink
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$2 -> $1
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
Reason
Leerink
Price Target
$2 -> $1
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Leerink downgraded Applied Therapeutics to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $1, down from $2. With growing concerns over Applied Therapeutics' balance sheet and the likelihood that the company will need to run two additional Phase 3 studies to get govorestat across the goal line, the firm is moving to the sidelines and cutting the stock's rating to Marker Perform.
Leerink
Joseph Schwartz
Outperform
to
Market Perform
downgrade
$1
2025-12-03
Reason
Leerink
Joseph Schwartz
Price Target
$1
2025-12-03
downgrade
Outperform
to
Market Perform
Reason
Leerink analyst Joseph Schwartz downgraded Applied Therapeutics to Market Perform from Outperform with a $1 price target.
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