AMR Valuation

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

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171.120

-2.87(-1.650%)1D

AMR Relative Valuation

AMR's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, AMR is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 173.99 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of 4.98. The fair price of Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) is between to according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

Current Price：171.12

Fair

18.82

Trailing

Forward

6.44

EV/EBITDA

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) has a current EV/EBITDA of 6.44. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 3.49. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.83, Undervalued between -0.83 and 1.33, Fairly Valued between 5.66 and 1.33, Overvalued between 5.66 and 7.82, and Strongly Overvalued above 7.82. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 6.44 falls within the Overvalued range.

12.53

EV/EBIT

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) has a current EV/EBIT of 12.53. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 4.62. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -11.70, Undervalued between -11.70 and -3.54, Fairly Valued between 12.79 and -3.54, Overvalued between 12.79 and 20.95, and Strongly Overvalued above 20.95. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 12.53 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

173.99

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) has a current PS of 173.99. The 5-year average PS is 1.82. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -25.29, Undervalued between -25.29 and -11.74, Fairly Valued between 15.38 and -11.74, Overvalued between 15.38 and 28.93, and Strongly Overvalued above 28.93. The current Forward PS of 173.99 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

16.70

P/OCF

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) has a current P/OCF of 16.70. The 5-year average P/OCF is 1.40. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -6.16, Undervalued between -6.16 and -2.38, Fairly Valued between 5.18 and -2.38, Overvalued between 5.18 and 8.97, and Strongly Overvalued above 8.97. The current Forward P/OCF of 16.70 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

25.20

P/FCF

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) has a current P/FCF of 25.20. The 5-year average P/FCF is 8.67. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -7.81, Undervalued between -7.81 and 0.43, Fairly Valued between 16.92 and 0.43, Overvalued between 16.92 and 25.16, and Strongly Overvalued above 25.16. The current Forward P/FCF of 25.20 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.41. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.80 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -21.83% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 2.10, the current P/B ratio is about -32.85% higher. Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 0.08%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 24.84%, the current FCF yield is approximately -99.67% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 15.77% , the current FCF yield is about -99.49% lower.

1.41

P/B

Median3y

1.80

Median5y

2.10

0.08

FCF Yield

Median3y

24.84

Median5y

15.77

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for AMR's competitors is 70.51, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc Corp (AMR) exhibits a P/S ratio of 173.99, which is 146.74% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -31.56%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

AMR.N

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

Alliance Resource Partners LP

Natural Resource Partners LP

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of AMR decreased by 29.15% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in P/E Change from -28.38 to -60.93.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -31.56%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of AMR in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-31.56%

803.97M → 550.27M

Revenue Growth

-112.28%

7.33 → -0.90

Margin Expansion

114.69%

-28.38 → -60.93

P/E Change

-29.15%