AMR Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AMR performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AMR sees a +3.90% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.11% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.15%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AMR Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
617.35M
-35.69%
-8.12%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
--
--
--
Net Margin
--
--
--
EPS
--
--
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No Data Available
AMR Earnings Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc Corporation (AMR.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Increase: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $53 million, an increase from $49 million in Q3, indicating improved operational efficiency.
Consistent Shipping Volume: 4.1 million tons were shipped in Q4, maintaining the same volume as Q3, demonstrating consistent production levels despite market challenges.
Record Safety Metrics: The company achieved record-setting safety metrics, with a total reportable incident rate (TRR) showing back-to-back company records, highlighting a strong commitment to safety.
Water Quality Compliance: Alpha maintained 99.9% water quality compliance in 2024, showcasing their dedication to environmental stewardship.
Strong Liquidity Position: The company has a strong liquidity position with $519.4 million available, up from $507 million in Q3, providing financial stability during challenging market conditions.
Strong Demand Commitment: Despite the market downturn, 32% of metallurgical tonnage for 2025 is already committed and priced at an average of $143.81, indicating strong demand for their product.
Coal Production Potential: The Kingston Wildcat Slope development is on track, expected to produce approximately 1 million tons of low-vol coal per year when fully operational, indicating future growth potential.
M&A Opportunities Strategy: The company has an open-door policy for M&A opportunities, positioning itself to strengthen its operations during market volatility.
Negative
Earnings Miss Report: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. missed earnings expectations with reported EPS of $0.00104, significantly lower than the expected $1.12.
Coal Market Challenges: The company faced deteriorating coal market conditions due to weak global steel demand, which negatively impacted their operations.
Winter Weather Impact: Severe winter weather caused significant challenges, leading to an increase in the cost of coal sales guidance and a reduction in annual metallurgical shipment volume guidance by 500,000 tons.
Net Segment Realization Decline: The company experienced a decrease in net segment realizations, with a drop in average realization per ton from $132.76 in Q3 to $127.84 in Q4.
Decline in Cash Flow: Cash provided by operating activities fell sharply from $189.5 million in Q3 to $56.3 million in Q4, indicating a significant decline in cash flow.
Metallurgical Shipment Guidance Reduction: The metallurgical shipment guidance for the year was reduced by 500,000 tons, reflecting the impact of severe weather and production challenges.
Share Buyback Suspension: The company did not repurchase any shares in Q4 under the share buyback program due to continued softness in the met coal markets.
AMR FAQs
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AMR Earning Call Sentiment
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AMR.N
-4.32%Positive
The earnings call reveals numerous challenges: declining coal prices, operational disruptions, and regulatory risks. Despite a slight EBITDA increase, most financial metrics are down, including shipment volumes and sales realizations. The lack of share buybacks and cautious cash management indicate market pessimism. Q&A responses reveal uncertainties, especially regarding costs and tariffs. While liquidity remains strong, the overall sentiment is negative due to ongoing market and operational risks. Given the market cap, a negative stock price reaction of -2% to -8% is anticipated.
