AMBC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AMBC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AMBC sees a -0.32% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.41% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.58%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AMBC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
65.22M
-16.38%
-42.79%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
-8.73%
-114.19%
-1092.05%
Net Margin
-32.11%
56.56%
30.74%
EPS
-10.23
-4162.50%
1633.90%
No Data Available
AMBC Earnings Analysis
Ambac Financial Group Inc Corporation (AMBC.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
P&C Business Performance Surge: Ambac's P&C business generated nearly $900 million of premiums, up 74% from 2023, and produced $236 million of revenue, which was up 89% from the prior year.
Transformative Acquisition Impact: The acquisition of Beat was highlighted as a transformative deal that brought immediate scale and breadth to Ambac's distribution platform.
Sale of Financial Guarantee Business: The successful sale of the legacy financial guarantee business to Oaktree for $420 million allows Ambac to accelerate the scaling of its Specialty P&C business.
Strong Revenue and EBITDA Growth: Cirrata generated nearly $100 million in revenue for 2024, up 93%, and earned approximately $20 million of adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong performance in the distribution business.
Gross Premium Growth: Everspan's gross premium written grew to over $380 million, up 40% from the prior year, and achieved a combined ratio of 101.6, nearly a 500 basis points improvement over 2023.
Supportive Insurance Market Conditions: The overall specialty and E&S commercial insurance market conditions remain broadly supportive of Ambac's business goals, with continued rate increases in U.S. casualty lines.
Significant Premiums and Revenue Growth: Cirrata's premiums place grew 309% to $205 million, and total revenue increased by 257% to $44 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, showcasing significant growth.
Improved EBITDA Margin: Ambac's adjusted EBITDA margin for the year was 19.8%, indicating improved operational efficiency compared to the previous year.
EBITDA Improvement Quarter-over-Quarter: Everspan produced just under $3 million of adjusted EBITDA to common stockholders for the fourth quarter, compared to just over $1 million for the same period in 2023, reflecting improved profitability.
Negative
Net Loss Increase: Ambac reported a net loss of $548 million for Q4 2024, a significant increase from a net loss of $16 million in Q4 2023, indicating a deteriorating financial performance.
Legacy Business Loss: The company recorded a $570 million loss on the sale of its legacy financial guarantee business, which negatively impacted overall results and reflects challenges in transitioning away from this segment.
Earnings Volatility Analysis: Despite a strong performance in the P&C business, the overall adjusted net loss was $6 million for Q4 2024, compared to an adjusted net income of $4 million in Q4 2023, highlighting volatility in earnings.
Decline in Net Premiums: Everspan's net premiums written were negative $3 million in Q4 2024, down from $37 million in the prior year, indicating a significant decline in premium generation due to non-renewals and program shifts.
Expense Ratio Increase: The expense ratio for Everspan increased to 44.6% in Q4 2024 from 32.9% in the prior year, driven by changes in sliding scale commissions, which negatively affects profitability.
EBITDA Margin Impact: Cirrata's adjusted EBITDA margin was impacted by approximately $9 million of intangible amortization related to the Beat acquisition, indicating increased costs associated with growth initiatives.
Non-Operating Losses Impact: The company faced $8 million in other non-operating losses and acquisition-related expenses, which further strained financial results and reflect ongoing challenges in managing costs during expansion.
AMBC FAQs
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AMBC Earning Call Sentiment
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (AMBC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AMBC.N
0.22%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals: strong revenue growth due to acquisitions and improved underwriting performance, but also significant net losses and increased expenses. The Q&A reveals uncertainties in market conditions and management's vague responses, which may concern investors. The accelerated share buyback program is a positive, but the lack of explicit shareholder return plans and unclear guidance on future profitability contribute to a neutral sentiment. The stock's reaction is likely to be muted in the absence of a market cap context.
