AMBC Earnings

AMBC reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-11-10, showcasing a revenue of 66.61M against an estimate of 56.77M, resulting in a 17.34% surprise. The EPS was -0.21, surpassing the expected -0.23 by 8.7% . The stock experienced a 16% price change on the earnings day and a 9.55% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following AMBC's FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-11-10, the stock price moved by 16.00% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 9.55% change. Historically, AMBC's stock price tends to shift by an average of -0.39% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -1.41% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate AMBC’s annual revenue to reach 83.88M, while the EPS is projected at -0.20. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue No Change by 0% and EPS estimates No Change by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.

The correlation between AMBC's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were No Change by 0%, while EPS estimates moved No Change by 0% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, AMBC's stock price typically moves by -0.39% in the 10 days before its earnings and -1.41% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of -0.20 and revenue of 83.88M.

The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong growth in the Insurance Distribution segment and share repurchases are positive, while increased losses and declining Everspan premiums are negative. The Q&A reveals confidence in capacity and strategic growth, but management's vague responses about capital allocation and premium projections may raise concerns. Overall, strong growth in some areas is offset by financial losses and uncertainties, leading to a neutral sentiment.