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AGRO Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Adecoagro SA(AGRO) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Adecoagro SA earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q22025-08-18----402.00M391.98M-2.49+0.99-5.93
FY2024Q42025-03-13After Hours-0.46-368.51M374.22M+1.55+0.75+1.68
FY2024Q22024-08-12After Hours-1.03-379.00M397.55M+4.89+9.67+7.77
FY2024Q12024-05-16--0.22-245.00M253.80M+3.59+0.09-7.27
FY2023Q42024-03-14---0.15-262.00M400.14M+52.73-0.77+2.21
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AGRO Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Adecoagro SA reported performance for FY2025Q2, announced on 2025-08-18. The company achieved an EPS of , compared to analyst estimates of by % . Revenue for the quarter reached 391.98M compared to expectations of 402.00M by -2.49% .
The stock price reacted with a 0.99% one-day change and a -5.93% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Adecoagro SA growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

AGRO Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, Adecoagro SA(AGRO) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 377.18M and an EPS of 0.15.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Upward by 1.64%, while EPS estimates have been No Change by 0%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted No Change by 0% . These revisions correlate with a 1.81% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Adecoagro SA long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between AGRO's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
up Image
+1.64%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
No Change
down Image
0.00%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
No Change
down Image
0.00%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
up Image
+1.81%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.48B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:1.45
—
Stock Price8.43
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AGRO Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

Adecoagro SA revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-18,):
EPS: (Actual) vs. (Estimate) (%)
Revenue: 391.98M (Actual) vs. 402.00M (Estimate) (-2.49%)
Price Reaction: 0.99%(1-Day), -5.93%(5-Day)
FY2024Q4 (2025-03-13,After Hours):
EPS: 0.46 (Actual) vs. (Estimate) (%)
Revenue: 374.22M (Actual) vs. 368.51M (Estimate) (1.55%)
Price Reaction: 0.75%(1-Day), 1.68%(5-Day)
FY2024Q2 (2024-08-12,After Hours):
EPS: 1.03 (Actual) vs. (Estimate) (%)
Revenue: 397.55M (Actual) vs. 379.00M (Estimate) (4.89%)
Price Reaction: 9.67%(1-Day), 7.77%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AGRO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AGRO sees a -3.83% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.90% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.44%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in JUN/2025, the stock changed -9.46% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -9.02% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-11-12
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with positive elements like increased cow productivity and ethanol production mix, but also significant negative aspects including lower sales volumes, higher costs in the dairy business, and a 29% decline in gross sales. The Q&A revealed concerns about leverage, unclear guidance on future dividends and financing, and a cautious CapEx approach due to weak pricing. Despite some optimism in sugar and ethanol outlooks, the overall sentiment is negative, especially for a small-cap stock, likely resulting in a -2% to -8% stock price movement.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-08-19
The earnings call revealed mixed signals: strong revenue growth but significant EBITDA decline. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties in sugar pricing and hedging strategies, while management's unclear responses on Bitcoin mining raised concerns. Despite optimism in ethanol demand and shareholder support, flat cane crushing projections and high leverage offset positive aspects. The stock's small-cap nature suggests potential volatility, but overall, the mixed outlook and lack of decisive positive catalysts suggest a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-05-14
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong net sales growth and a positive outlook for sugarcane yields, but significant declines in adjusted EBITDA across segments and increased net debt. The Q&A reveals optimism about growth opportunities and governance, but management's vague responses on expansion timelines and future size raise concerns. With a market cap of $1.01 billion, the stock's reaction is likely to be moderate, balancing positive sales with weak financial metrics and cautious guidance, resulting in a neutral stock price movement prediction.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-05-13
The earnings report presents mixed signals: strong net sales growth and positive ethanol sales contrast with significant declines in EBITDA due to biological asset losses and lower production. The Q&A reveals optimism about future growth and improved yields but also highlights concerns over unclear timelines and increased debt. The market cap suggests moderate volatility, leading to a neutral stock price prediction as positive and negative factors balance each other out.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-03-15
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with record results in rice and dairy, increased revenue, and efficient cash generation. Despite challenges in crop operations, the company maintains a positive outlook on sugar production and ethanol demand. The Q&A reveals optimism about sugar's S&D scenario and benefits from trade changes. Although management avoided discussing the Tether offer, overall sentiment is positive due to increased shareholder returns and strategic expansions. With a market cap of $1 billion, the stock is likely to react positively, within a 2% to 8% range.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-03-14
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with record-high revenues in rice and dairy segments and increased EBITDA. Shareholder returns exceeded expectations, and strategic CapEx focuses on expansion. However, management's reluctance to comment on the Tether offer and potential sugar price volatility are concerns. Overall, the positive financials and shareholder returns outweigh uncertainties, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-03-14
The earnings call presents a mixed but overall positive outlook. Financial performance shows record EBITDA in key segments, despite challenges in sugar prices and net sales. The Q&A highlights strong sugar and ethanol demand, beneficial tariff impacts, and cost efficiencies. Management's lack of clarity on the TETA proposal is a concern, but not enough to outweigh the positives. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a positive stock price prediction within 2%-8%.
Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-11-14
The earnings call shows positive signs with increased gross sales, record high rice adjusted EBITDA, improved liquidity, and significant share repurchases. Despite some declines in EBITDA and crushing volumes, optimistic guidance on ethanol demand, sugar prices, and yield improvements in Argentina contribute positively. The market strategy and shareholder return plan are strong, while financial health remains stable. Given the small market cap, these factors collectively suggest a positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of AGRO’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q2?

AGRO reported its FY2025Q2 earnings on 2025-08-18, showcasing a revenue of 391.98M against an estimate of 402.00M, resulting in a -2.49% surprise. The EPS was 0, surpassing the expected 0 by 0% . The stock experienced a 0.99% price change on the earnings day and a -5.93% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did AGRO’s stock price react after the FY2025Q2 earnings release?

Following AGRO’s FY2025Q2 earnings announcement on 2025-08-18, the stock price moved by 0.99% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -5.93% change. Historically, AGRO’s stock price tends to shift by an average of -3.83% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -0.90% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AGRO for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate AGRO’s annual revenue to reach 377.18M, while the EPS is projected at 0.15. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Upward by 1.64% and EPS estimates No Change by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does AGRO’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between AGRO’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Upward by 1.64%, while EPS estimates moved No Change by 0% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from AGRO’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, AGRO’s stock price typically moves by -3.83% in the 10 days before its earnings and -0.90% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.15 and revenue of 377.18M.
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What is the sentiment in Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with positive elements like increased cow productivity and ethanol production mix, but also significant negative aspects including lower sales volumes, higher costs in the dairy business, and a 29% decline in gross sales. The Q&A revealed concerns about leverage, unclear guidance on future dividends and financing, and a cautious CapEx approach due to weak pricing. Despite some optimism in sugar and ethanol outlooks, the overall sentiment is negative, especially for a small-cap stock, likely resulting in a -2% to -8% stock price movement.
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