ACDC Stock Price Chart
ACDC Fundamental Analysis
ACDC Earnings Analysis
Positive
Earnings Surprise Report: ProFrac Holding Corp. beat earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $-0.375, exceeding the expectation of $-0.39.
Q4 Revenue and EBITDA Performance: In Q4, ProFrac delivered revenue of $455 million and adjusted EBITDA of $71 million, demonstrating resilience despite typical fourth quarter challenges.
Strong Financial Performance: For the full year 2024, ProFrac achieved revenue of $2.19 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $501 million, showcasing strong financial performance amidst competitive pressures.
Stimulation Business Improvement: The company has seen a sizable improvement in activity in its Stimulation business since the end of 2024, with record efficiencies achieved in January 2025.
New Power Generation Venture: ProFrac introduced a new business venture, Livewire Power, focusing on power generation for electric frac operations, marking a significant step forward in their strategy.
Free Cash Flow Performance: The company generated $54 million of free cash flow in Q4 and $185 million in total for 2024, highlighting effective cash management and capital discipline.
Asset Management Enhancement: ProFrac's asset management platform is enhancing the quality and economics of their pumping operations, leading to improved customer relationships and operational efficiencies.
Strategic Proppant Positioning: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on increased natural gas completion activity in the Haynesville, with the largest Proppant footprint in the region.
Negative
Q4 Revenue Decline: Revenue in Q4 2024 was $455 million, down from $575 million in Q3 2024, indicating a significant drop in activity and pricing pressure.
Q4 EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $71 million, down from $135 million in Q3, reflecting a decline in margins from 23% to 16%.
Stimulation Services Revenue Decline: The Stimulation services segment saw revenues drop from $507 million in Q3 to $384 million in Q4, with adjusted EBITDA falling from $113 million to $54 million, indicating a sharp decline in performance.
Proppant Revenue Decline: Proppant Production segment revenues decreased from $53 million in Q3 to $47 million in Q4, attributed to lower pricing and slightly lower sales volumes.
Fleet Count Decline: The company faced a pronounced impact in Q4, leading to a sharper than anticipated drop in active fleet count, which could hinder future performance.
Pressure Pumping Market Outlook: Pricing in the Pressure Pumping market softened due to lower activity, and while there is potential for improvement, it is expected to be offset by increased costs from tariffs and labor inflation.
Manufacturing Segment Performance: The Manufacturing segment's adjusted EBITDA was only $3 million in Q4, reflecting limited growth and reliance on intercompany sales.
Financial Performance Strain: Despite generating $54 million in free cash flow in Q4, the overall financial performance showed signs of strain due to market conditions and operational challenges.
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Analysis and Insights
Technical Analysis:
ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) stock is currently trading at $8.2 as of the close on March 27, 2025. The stock has shown a slight increase in pre-market trading, up 0.50%, and a more significant gain of 1.74% during regular market hours. The volume of 512,866 shares indicates moderate trading activity.
From a technical standpoint, the stock is approaching overbought territory based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI-14 is at 63.02, just below the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions. The Stochastic Oscillator also shows overbought signals, with K at 91.55 and D at 90.36. These indicators suggest that the stock may be due for a pullback in the near term.
The MACD is slightly positive at 0.16, with the signal line also in positive territory, indicating a weak uptrend. The Bollinger Bands show the stock trading near the upper band, suggesting increased volatility.
Valuation and Fundamental Analysis:
ProFrac Holding Corp. recently reported Q4 results, with revenue of $454.7 million, which missed expectations by $24.56 million. The company also reported a net loss of $102 million, worse than the expected loss of $45.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $71 million, down from $135 million in the previous quarter, reflecting weaker profitability.
The company has increased its active fleet count to its highest level since mid-2024, securing six additional fleets since the fourth-quarter low. However, management expects lower average pricing to offset modestly higher activity in Stimulation Services year-over-year. The company also anticipates continued industry-wide equipment attrition due to higher hours pumped per fleet and lower reinvestment levels.
Analysts have mixed opinions on the stock. JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram maintained an Underweight rating on ACDC, citing slower profitability growth and revising the 2025-26 EBITDA forecasts downward. Other analysts have also expressed caution, with some lowering their price targets.
Fibonacci Levels:
The Fibonacci levels for ACDC stock are as follows:
- Resistance Levels: $8.45 (R1), $8.98 (R2)
- Support Levels: $7.31 (S1), $6.76 (S2)
The stock is currently trading near the first resistance level of $8.45. If it breaks above this level, it could test the next resistance at $8.98. Conversely, if it falls below the support level of $7.31, it could decline further to $6.76.
Conclusion:
Given the technical indicators showing overbought conditions and the mixed fundamental outlook, it may be prudent to consider selling ACDC stock at current levels. The stock's valuation and recent earnings miss, combined with analyst downgrades, suggest potential downside risk. However, if the stock can break above the resistance levels and show continued strength, it may be worth holding or re-entering at a lower price point.
