Yum China presents three-year financial forecast during investor day
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 17 2025
0mins
Financial Targets for 2025: Yum China aims for an operating margin of 10.8%-10.9%, restaurant margin of 16.2%-16.3%, and free cash flow per share of $2.20 to $2.30.
Growth Projections (2026-2028): The company targets a same-store sales index of 100 to 102, mid- to high-single-digit CAGR for system sales and operating profit, and double-digit CAGR for diluted EPS and free cash flow per share.
Store Expansion and Margins by 2028: Yum China plans to exceed 25,000 total stores, with operating margins of at least 11.5% and restaurant margins of at least 16.7% for Yum China, 17.3% for KFC, and 14.5% for Pizza Hut.
Shareholder Returns: The company is set to return $1.5B annually from 2024 to 2026, with plans to return approximately 100% of annual free cash flow starting in 2027, potentially exceeding $1B in returns by 2028.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy YUMC?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on YUMC
Wall Street analysts forecast YUMC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for YUMC is 56.44 USD with a low forecast of 53.06 USD and a high forecast of 61.58 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 50.510
Low
53.06
Averages
56.44
High
61.58
Current: 50.510
Low
53.06
Averages
56.44
High
61.58
About YUMC
Yum China Holdings Inc is a holding company principally engaged in the restaurant operation business. The Company operates three segments, including KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segment. KFC segment operates quick-service restaurant, providing original recipe chicken, whole chicken and other chicken products as well as beef burgers, pork, seafood, rice dishes, congees, fresh vegetables, desserts, coffee, tea and many other products. Pizza Hut segment operates casual dining restaurant, offering multiple dayparts, including breakfast, lunch, afternoon tea and dinner. All Other segment includes the operations of Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, Little Sheep and Taco Bell, delivery operation and e-commerce business.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Broad Peak Sells Entire Stake in Yum China Holdings
- Share Sale Details: Broad Peak Investment Advisers sold all 644,905 shares of Yum China Holdings in Q4 2025, with an estimated trade value of $27.68 million, reflecting the impact of market fluctuations on its portfolio.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of January 28, Yum China's stock was priced at $49.96, up 11.7% over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 3.31 percentage points, indicating relative weakness in its market performance.
- Company Financial Overview: Yum China boasts a market capitalization of $17.69 billion, with TTM revenue of $11.57 billion and net income of $904 million, showcasing its robust operational capabilities and cash generation in the Chinese fast-food sector.
- Investor Considerations: Despite Yum China's strong operational performance and a digital sales penetration of 95%, Broad Peak's capital reallocation indicates a preference for higher-conviction investments, highlighting how even well-performing companies can be sidelined due to changing market conditions.
Continue Reading
DPC Dash Opens 90 New Stores in China
- Rapid Expansion: DPC Dash opened 90 new stores in the first 24 days of January, bringing its total to 1,405, demonstrating strong growth momentum despite economic challenges.
- Market Penetration: The company entered nine new markets in Q4 last year, expanding its footprint to 60 cities across China, positioning itself as the second-largest pizza chain with a market share of approximately 10%.
- Revenue Growth: DPC's revenue surged 27% year-on-year to 2.59 billion yuan in the first half of last year, reflecting robust performance driven by rapid expansion, with full-year results expected in March 2025.
- Membership Growth: The loyalty program's membership increased by 45% from 24.5 million at the end of 2024 to 35.6 million, highlighting DPC's competitive edge in customer retention and market positioning.
Continue Reading