SBC as a Competitive Tool: Stock-based compensation (SBC) is increasingly vital for tech companies to attract and retain AI talent, according to Morgan Stanley.
Impact on Cost Structure: SBC is becoming a significant part of the cost structure for companies like Meta, Oracle, and Broadcom, raising concerns about potential shareholder dilution.
Diverse Strategies Among Companies: Different firms have varying approaches to SBC; for instance, Microsoft has modest growth in SBC while Oracle faces dilution risks due to high dividends and spending.
Investor Considerations: Investors should evaluate the balance between acquiring AI talent through SBC and the risk of shareholder dilution, expanding scrutiny beyond just capital expenditures.
ORCL
$178.46+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on ORCL
Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ORCL is 352.52 USD with a low forecast of 175.00 USD and a high forecast of 415.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
37 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ORCL is 352.52 USD with a low forecast of 175.00 USD and a high forecast of 415.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
25 Buy
11 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 188.650
Low
175.00
Averages
352.52
High
415.00
Current: 188.650
Low
175.00
Averages
352.52
High
415.00
Phillip Securities
Buy
downgrade
$350 -> $344
2025-12-14
New
Reason
Phillip Securities
Price Target
$350 -> $344
2025-12-14
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Phillip Securities lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $344 from $350 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast for Oracle to $50B from $35B. It remains "bullish on Oracle as a niche OCI provider and a full-stack AI provider."
Goldman Sachs
Kash Rangan
Neutral
downgrade
$320 -> $220
2025-12-12
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Kash Rangan
Price Target
$320 -> $220
2025-12-12
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $220 from $320 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Oracle's Q2 showed modest revenue and cloud-growth shortfalls alongside sharply higher capex and free cash flow burn, amplifying concerns about financing needs, tenant concentration, and valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Management reiterated FY26 revenue guidance and addressed balance-sheet worries, but the stock's decline reflects softer cloud momentum, a large capex increase without near-term revenue uplift, questions around OpenAI's commitments, and uncertainty about the sustainability of OCI's bring-your-own-chips and leasing mix, the firm says.
RBC Capital
Sector Perform
maintain
$250
2025-12-12
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$250
2025-12-12
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital reiterated a Sector Perform rating and $250 price target on Oracle following a report from Bloomberg claiming that the company is delaying delivery of certain data center capacity to OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages. Oracle denied the claims to Reuters, and RBC said it confirmed this statement with management. Beyond this, management noted it remains fully aligned with OpenAI and confident in its ability to execute against both its contractual commitments and future expansion plans, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
JPMorgan
Mark Murphy
Neutral
downgrade
$270 -> $230
2025-12-11
Reason
JPMorgan
Mark Murphy
Price Target
$270 -> $230
2025-12-11
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $230 from $270 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's fiscal Q2 report as "mixed," with "modest" sales and operating-income shortfalls. However, Oracle continues to advance its position as one of the key beneficiaries of large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan cites higher execution risk from the multi-year trajectory for Oracle Cloud and "pressured" free cash flow forecasts for the target cut.
About ORCL
Oracle Corporation offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. The Company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware and service. Its cloud and license business is engaged in the sale, marketing and delivery of its enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings, and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. Its hardware business provides infrastructure technologies including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments. Its services business provides services to customers and partners to help maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle applications and infrastructure technologies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
