Why Nvidia Is the Biggest Risk to the Stock Market—Not Tariffs

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

META+2.09%

GOOG-0.66%

NVDA+1.31%

Source: Barron's

Updated: Aug 04 2025

0mins

Source: Barron's

Market Concerns: There are growing worries about the impact of changing trade policies and higher tariffs on markets, alongside a significant investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
AI Dependency: U.S. stocks have reached new highs despite geopolitical risks, raising concerns from investment expert Louis Gave about market dependence on AI spending, particularly benefiting companies like Nvidia.

Analyst Views on META

Wall Street analysts forecast META stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for META is 824.71 USD with a low forecast of 655.15 USD and a high forecast of 1117 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

44 Analyst Rating

37 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 647.630

Low

655.15

Averages

824.71

High

1117

Current: 647.630

Low

655.15

Averages

824.71

High

1117

Wells Fargo

Ken Gawrelski

Overweight

downgrade

$795 -> $754

2026-01-23

New

Reason

Wells Fargo

Ken Gawrelski

Price Target

$795 -> $754

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

New

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $754 from $795 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that evaluation of capacity contracts drives meaningful upward revision to OpEx/CapEx estimates for 2026-2028. Wells sees a challenging near-term timing mismatch between ramping AI investments in compute capacity and identification of new use cases and products.

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$910

2026-01-22

New

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$910

2026-01-22

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies lays out five reasons to buy the pullback in Meta Platforms (META), pointing to an "attractive" risk/reward at the current discount to Alphabet (GOOGL); what it views as "moderate downside" to estimates and stronger upside potential; AI hires that it views as "set to deliver" in 2026; Continued momentum from Meta's core flywheel powered by AI; and accelerating activation of major incremental revenue engines, including WhatsApp, Threads and Llama/AI. The firm keeps a Buy rating and $910 price target on Meta shares.

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BofA

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

$111 -> $127

2026-01-21

New

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$111 -> $127

2026-01-21

New

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

As previously reported, BofA upgraded Oklo (OKLO) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $127, up from $111, following the company's signing of a firm, binding agreement with Meta (META) to develop a phased 1.2 GW advanced nuclear campus. While the MW contribution is "modest," the deal signals a "meaningful step forward" and provides tangible proof of execution and counterparty commitment, the analyst tells investors. Meta's willingness to commit capital years ahead of delivery underscores the importance of nuclear as AI and data center demand accelerate, adds the analyst, who sees Oklo as the most levered public SMR name to data center demand.

UBS

Buy

downgrade

$915 -> $830

2026-01-20

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$915 -> $830

2026-01-20

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $830 from $915 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Q4 earnings outlook for advertising-driven companies points to slimmer beats after a slow October tied to a government shutdown, followed by a rebound in November and December, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Among nine companies, five exceeded prior forecasts, two were in line, and two came in modestly below expectations, UBS says.

About META

Meta Platforms, Inc. is building human connections, powered by artificial intelligence and immersive technologies. The Company's products enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) headsets, augmented reality (AR), and wearables. It also helps people discover and learn about what is going on in the world around them, enabling people to share their experiences, ideas, photos, videos, and other content with audiences ranging from their closest family members and friends to the public at large. The Company's segments include Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). FoA segment includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Threads. RL segment includes its virtual, augmented, and mixed reality related consumer hardware, software and content. Its product offerings in VR include its Meta Quest devices, as well as software and content available through the Meta Horizon Store.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.