Whisky Industry Faces Significant Challenges from Scotland to Kentucky
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 29 2025
0mins
Should l Buy DEO?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Challenges in the Whisky Industry: The whisky industry is experiencing a challenging period with declining sales in the U.S., oversupply issues, and rising production costs, particularly affecting American producers of bourbon.
Strategic Adaptations: Major companies like Brown-Forman and Diageo are adapting their strategies in response to market changes, while the American Whiskey Association aims to promote American whiskey globally amidst trade tensions.
Scottish Whisky Producers: Scottish whisky producers are also facing difficulties due to high alcohol taxes, potential U.S. tariffs, and decreased demand from China, impacting major brands owned by multinational companies.
Market Outlook: Despite current challenges, the global whisky market is expected to grow over the next decade, driven by increasing consumer interest in premium and craft whiskies.
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Analyst Views on DEO
Wall Street analysts forecast DEO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DEO is 88.46 USD with a low forecast of 24.85 USD and a high forecast of 131.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 97.100
Low
24.85
Averages
88.46
High
131.00
Current: 97.100
Low
24.85
Averages
88.46
High
131.00
About DEO
Diageo plc is a United Kingdom-based international manufacturer and distributor of premium drinks. The Company offers beverage alcohol with a collection of brands across spirits and beer categories. Its segments include North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, Africa, and Corporate and other. The SC&P segment manufactures products and includes production sites in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy, Guatemala and Mexico, as well as comprises the global procurement function. Its principal products include scotch whisky, whisk(e)y, vodka, tequila, gin, rum, liqueurs, beer, wine, and non-alcoholic spirits. Its collection of brands includes Johnnie Walker, J&B and Buchanan's whiskies, Smirnoff, Ciroc and Ketel One vodkas, Captain Morgan, Don Julio, Guinness, and Tanqueray, among others. It offers Ritual Zero Proof Non-Alcoholic Spirits (Ritual). It owns manufacturing production facilities across the globe, including distilleries, breweries, and packaging plants.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Volume Growth and Consumer Shift: While overall volumes rose 1.9% to 318.1 million 9-liter cases, the revenue decline indicates a shift towards lower-priced spirits as consumers cut back on premium purchases, highlighting a significant change in market consumption patterns.
- Premixed Cocktails Surge: Sales of premixed cocktails increased over 16% year-on-year to $3.8 billion, indicating a consumer preference for lower-priced options, with this category more than doubling its market share since 2021.
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- Technical Collaboration: The ad was produced by Silverside AI, which previously assisted Coca-Cola in ad creation, highlighting the growing significance of AI in advertising and its potential impact on consumer acceptance of AI-generated content.
- Competitor Dynamics: In addition to Svedka, Diageo's Smirnoff brand will also air a commercial during the Super Bowl, indicating an intensifying competition in the vodka market as brands leverage this platform to enhance visibility.
See More
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- Regional Representation Growth: Pune leads Tier 2 cities with 27 bartenders from the West, 22 from the South, 20 from the North, and 11 from the East, alongside 10 each from Sri Lanka and Nepal, indicating a rapid professionalization of bartending across various regions.
- Classic Cocktail Reinterpretation: Bartenders consistently returned to classic formats, with Sours as the most common starting point, followed by Highballs, Old Fashioneds, and Rob Roy-style cocktails, showcasing their ability to blend tradition with innovation.
- Local Flavors Highlighted: The Top 100 cocktail submissions prominently featured local ingredients such as coconut water, banana, and spices, reflecting bartenders' emphasis on regional flavors, which further enhances the diversity and creativity of India's bartending culture.
See More
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- Geopolitical Risks: President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries, including the U.K., France, and Germany, which could heighten market uncertainty and affect transatlantic trade relations.
- Corporate Developments: Diageo is considering options for its Chinese assets, while BP expects to book $4B-$5B in impairments for Q4, primarily related to its low-carbon energy businesses, reflecting challenges in the sector.
- Asia-Pacific Market Performance: China recorded a $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025 with a 5.5% increase in exports despite U.S. tariff pressures, indicating economic resilience, while Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 4.8%, showcasing regional market activity.
See More
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- Inventory Crisis: Major global spirits producers, including Diageo and Pernod Ricard, are currently holding about $22 billion in unsold inventory, marking the highest levels in over a decade, leading to production halts and increased pressure to discount prices.
- Demand Plummet: The sharp decline in demand for premium spirits, exacerbated by inflation impacting household budgets, has resulted in a significant drop in cognac exports over the past year, further intensifying the inventory issue.
- Production Adjustments: In response to the inventory buildup, Diageo and other companies have temporarily shut down or slowed distillery operations in the U.S., a move that may help reduce stock but risks creating supply shortages if demand rebounds in the future.
- Uncertain Industry Outlook: Analysts warn that current production cuts could lead to supply shortages in the coming years, highlighting the long-term uncertainty facing the industry, particularly if demand recovers, which may further strain companies' financial health.
See More
