Implications of Packaging Corporation of America's (PKG) Earnings Shortfall and Conservative Forecast for Investors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 26 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PKG?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Third-Quarter Financial Results: Packaging Corporation of America reported third-quarter 2025 sales of $2,313.4 million and GAAP earnings of $2.51 per share, both falling short of analyst expectations, while issuing a cautious fourth-quarter earnings guidance of $2.40 per share.
Integration and Profit Concerns: The company's ongoing integration of the Greif acquisition and challenges related to cost inflation and market demand have raised concerns about profit momentum, with a focus on whether these factors could hinder expected synergies.
Operational Strength Amid Challenges: Despite the earnings miss, the company achieved a record free cash flow of $277 million in Q3, indicating operational strength that could support future investments and debt management, even as it navigates integration and market headwinds.
Diverse Outlook and Fair Value Estimates: Analysts project $9.5 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028, with fair value estimates for the stock varying widely from $184.63 to $397.85, reflecting differing opinions on the impact of Greif integration risks and earnings challenges.
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Analyst Views on PKG
Wall Street analysts forecast PKG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PKG is 242.86 USD with a low forecast of 226.00 USD and a high forecast of 273.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 231.910
Low
226.00
Averages
242.86
High
273.00
Current: 231.910
Low
226.00
Averages
242.86
High
273.00
About PKG
Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard products and a producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America. The Company operates eight mills and 86 corrugated products plants and related facilities. Its segments include Packaging, Paper and Corporate and Other. Its containerboard mills produce linerboard and corrugating medium, which are papers primarily used in the production of corrugated products. Its corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a variety of corrugated packaging products. In addition, it also produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit, and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. It manufactures and sells papers, including both commodity and specialty papers, which may have custom or specialized features, such as colors, coatings, high brightness, and recycled content. Its papers consist of communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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