Third-Quarter Financial Results: Packaging Corporation of America reported third-quarter 2025 sales of $2,313.4 million and GAAP earnings of $2.51 per share, both falling short of analyst expectations, while issuing a cautious fourth-quarter earnings guidance of $2.40 per share.
Integration and Profit Concerns: The company's ongoing integration of the Greif acquisition and challenges related to cost inflation and market demand have raised concerns about profit momentum, with a focus on whether these factors could hinder expected synergies.
Operational Strength Amid Challenges: Despite the earnings miss, the company achieved a record free cash flow of $277 million in Q3, indicating operational strength that could support future investments and debt management, even as it navigates integration and market headwinds.
Diverse Outlook and Fair Value Estimates: Analysts project $9.5 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028, with fair value estimates for the stock varying widely from $184.63 to $397.85, reflecting differing opinions on the impact of Greif integration risks and earnings challenges.
PKG
$207.02+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on PKG
Wall Street analysts forecast PKG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PKG is 238.86 USD with a low forecast of 222.00 USD and a high forecast of 263.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast PKG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PKG is 238.86 USD with a low forecast of 222.00 USD and a high forecast of 263.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 202.820
Low
222.00
Averages
238.86
High
263.00
Current: 202.820
Low
222.00
Averages
238.86
High
263.00
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$238 -> $245
2025-12-05
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$238 -> $245
2025-12-05
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Packaging Corp. to $245 from $238 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that with excess supply "looming in almost every market across almost every product grade," it expects 2026 to be a tough year for paper and packaging. However, the U.S. corrugated packaging market is facing a structural rationalization of capacity which should support prices through 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
UBS
Anojja Shah
Neutral
maintain
$225 -> $230
2025-10-24
Reason
UBS
Anojja Shah
Price Target
$225 -> $230
2025-10-24
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Anojja Shah raised the firm's price target on Packaging Corp. to $230 from $225 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
BofA
Buy
downgrade
$249 -> $240
2025-10-24
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$249 -> $240
2025-10-24
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Packaging Corp. to $240 from $249 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted its EPS forecasts to $9.92 from $10.30 in 2025 and $11.95 from $13.10 in 2026, but maintains a Buy rating on valuation as well as positives it sees for 2026 from the Greif acquisition and pricing in containerboard, the analyst tells investors.
UBS
Neutral
maintain
$226 -> $225
2025-10-16
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$226 -> $225
2025-10-16
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on Packaging Corp. to $225 from $226 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
About PKG
Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard products and a producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America. The Company operates eight mills and 86 corrugated products plants and related facilities. Its segments include Packaging, Paper and Corporate and Other. Its containerboard mills produce linerboard and corrugating medium, which are papers primarily used in the production of corrugated products. Its corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a variety of corrugated packaging products. In addition, it also produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit, and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. It manufactures and sells papers, including both commodity and specialty papers, which may have custom or specialized features, such as colors, coatings, high brightness, and recycled content. Its papers consist of communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
