Venture Global Lowers FY25 EBITDA Guidance to $6.4B-$6.8B
Venture Global previously forecast FY25 adjusted EBITDA view $6.4B-$6.8B. The company cited "unusual factors impacting those measures during the quarter ended December 31, 2025" for the guidance reduction. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Venture Global exported 128 cargos from its LNG facilities. Venture Global sales totaled 478.3 TBtu of LNG at an implied weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $5.15 per MMBtu during the quarter. During the quarter, both the volume and pricing of cargos exported were impacted by changes in Henry Hub prices and International LNG prices as well as limited vessel availability in the Atlantic basin. During this time of shipping constraints, we were able to pull forward scheduled maintenance late in the quarter. In addition, by being able to utilize our shipping fleet of owned and chartered vessels, the company and its subsidiaries were able to mitigate some of the impact from tight shipping markets. Forward pricing for such factors in February and March of 2026 have improved from year end levels. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Venture Global exported 38 cargos from its Calcasieu Pass facility. Venture Global third-party sales of LNG sourced from the Calcasieu Pass facility totaled 140.1 TBtu at an implied weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $2.01 per MMBtu inclusive of adjustments for estimated arbitration reserves, during the quarter. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Venture Global exported 90 cargos from its Plaquemines facility. Venture Global third-party sales of LNG sourced from the Plaquemines facility totaled 338.2 TBtu at an implied weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $6.02 per MMBtu, during the quarter. Shares of Venture Global are down 1.66% to $7.11 in late morning trading.
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J.P. Morgan Downgrades Venture Global to Neutral Amid EBITDA Guidance Cuts
- Rating Downgrade: J.P. Morgan downgraded Venture Global from Overweight to Neutral with an $11 price target, reflecting the company's negative revision to FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
- Earnings Volatility: The analyst highlighted significant earnings volatility for Venture Global due to its high sensitivity to short-term pricing, evidenced by three downward revisions to the 2025 guidance, indicating uncertainty in market performance.
- Market Outlook: With substantial LNG capacity set to come online in the coming years, the analyst expects LNG prices to moderate, negatively impacting Venture Global's market exposure and exacerbating earnings instability.
- Arbitration Uncertainty: Ongoing arbitration uncertainties continue to pose pressure on Venture Global's stock price, despite a bullish outlook on long-term LNG spreads, indicating a complex investment landscape.
U.S. Winter Storm Halts Oil and LNG Exports
- Export Halt: The winter storm caused U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil and LNG exports to drop to zero on Sunday, with recovery only on Monday, highlighting the severe impact of extreme weather on the energy supply chain.
- Production Losses: Analysts forecast that approximately 2 million barrels per day of oil production went offline over the weekend, representing about 15% of total U.S. output, with the Permian Basin alone seeing 1.5 million barrels per day offline, expected to recover by the end of the month.
- LPG Export Impact: The storm led to liquefied petroleum gas exports, including propane and butane, falling to around a third of seasonal norms, indicating significant market tension regarding energy supplies.
- Natural Gas Decline: The winter storm resulted in a loss of up to 11% of U.S. natural gas production, with January output expected to decline by 3.3 billion cubic feet per day compared to earlier forecasts, affecting overall market supply-demand balance.
