VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Rallies 48.7% in 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 12 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AMD?
Source: Fool
- ETF Performance: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) surged 48.7% in 2025, reflecting strong growth in the semiconductor sector driven by artificial intelligence, which has attracted increased investor interest in the sector's potential.
- Key Component Analysis: While Nvidia's annual gain was 38.9%, the ETF's overall performance benefited from Micron's 240.2% increase, highlighting the surge in memory demand and the ETF's market cap weighting strategy.
- Price Trend Forecast: DRAM prices are projected to rise over 50% this quarter, with NAND flash prices expected to increase by 30% to 40% quarter-over-quarter, further enhancing the profitability and investment appeal of the semiconductor industry.
- AI Infrastructure Boost: As AI infrastructure continues to expand, industry leaders widely predict that AI-related spending will keep growing over the next few years, potentially allowing the SMH to outperform the market again in 2026.
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Analyst Views on AMD
Wall Street analysts forecast AMD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMD is 284.10 USD with a low forecast of 200.00 USD and a high forecast of 377.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
36 Analyst Rating
27 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 192.500
Low
200.00
Averages
284.10
High
377.00
Current: 192.500
Low
200.00
Averages
284.10
High
377.00
About AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is a global semiconductor company. The Company is focused on high-performance computing, graphics and visualization technologies. Its segments include Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded. Data Center segment includes artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, microprocessors (CPUs) for servers, graphics processing units (GPUs), accelerated processing units (APUs), data processing units (DPUs), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), smart network interface Cards (SmartNICs) and Adaptive system-on-Chip (SoC) products for data centers. Client and Gaming segment includes CPUs, APUs, chipsets for desktops and notebooks, discrete GPUs, and semi-custom SoC products and development services. Embedded segment includes embedded CPUs, GPUs, APUs, FPGAs, system on modules (SOMs), and Adaptive SoC products. It markets and sells its products under the AMD trademark. Its products include AMD EPYC, AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen PRO, Virtex UltraScale+, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Data Center Revenue Growth: AMD's data center revenue surged 39% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, driven by record CPU and GPU sales, highlighting strong demand in the AI sector, with eight of the ten largest AI companies now utilizing its GPUs.
- Client and Gaming Segment Performance: Revenue from the client and gaming segments rose 34% and 50% respectively, totaling $3.9 billion, although the company anticipates a meaningful decline in semi-custom revenue in 2026, which could impact future growth potential.
- Overall Financial Performance: AMD's total revenue for Q4 climbed 34% year-over-year to $10.27 billion, with gross margin increasing to 54%, and adjusted earnings per share rising 40% to $1.53, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating robust performance amid high investor expectations.
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- Massive Market Potential: According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the total addressable market for AI accelerators is expected to grow at a 16% CAGR, reaching $604 billion by 2033, providing strong market support for Micron Technology.
- Surging Memory Demand: Micron dominates in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), and NAND chips, with forecasts indicating the memory market could grow to $100 billion by 2028, highlighting the accelerating demand for memory chips.
- Capital Expenditure Driving Price Increases: With big tech expected to spend over $500 billion on AI infrastructure, shortages in HBM solutions are anticipated, with TrendForce research suggesting DRAM and NAND prices could soar by 60% and 38%, respectively, in Q1 alone.
- Attractive Valuation: Micron currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12, significantly lower than other leaders in the AI chip market, and combined with the multi-year supercycle for HBM chips, this indicates strong investment potential for Micron stock.
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- Surging Memory Demand: Micron's management forecasts the memory market will grow from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028, indicating that demand for memory chips is accelerating at a pace far exceeding that of the GPU market.
- Rising Prices Driven by Capex: With hyperscalers' capital expenditure budgets increasing, big tech is expected to spend over $500 billion on AI infrastructure this year, leading to shortages in HBM solutions, with DRAM and NAND prices potentially soaring by 60% and 38% respectively in Q1.
- Attractive Valuation: Micron currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12, significantly lower than other leaders in the AI chip market, and combined with the multi-year supercycle for HBM chips, this suggests strong investment value, positioning Micron as a potential
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- Surging Memory Demand: Micron's management forecasts that the memory market will grow from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028, indicating a much faster acceleration in demand for memory chips compared to the GPU market.
- Capex Driving Price Increases: Big tech is expected to spend over $500 billion on AI infrastructure this year, leading to shortages in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions, with TrendForce research suggesting DRAM and NAND chip prices could soar by 60% and 38%, respectively, in Q1 alone.
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See More
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- AMD Stock Purchase: After AMD's stock fell 17% due to disappointing first-quarter revenue forecasts of $9.8 billion, Wood seized the opportunity to buy shares, highlighting the company's long-term potential in the AI chip market despite short-term market reactions.
- CoreWeave Acquisition: Wood also increased her stake in CoreWeave as its stock dropped about 50%, and although the company has yet to report its latest earnings, the strong demand for AI workload capacity suggests continued revenue growth potential.
- Market Outlook: Despite concerns regarding AI stock valuations and the sustainability of high spending, Wood views the current price drop as a buying opportunity, reflecting her confidence in the long-term growth potential of the AI sector, which may encourage other investors to follow her lead.
See More
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- Investment Strategy: Cathie Wood actively purchases potential long-term winners during market downturns, particularly companies involved in disruptive technologies, a strategy that has led her flagship Ark Innovation fund to grow over 50% in the past three years.
- AMD Investment: After AMD's stock dropped 17% due to a first-quarter revenue forecast that disappointed investors, Wood quickly increased her stake in the company, which expects $9.8 billion in revenue for the quarter, highlighting its long-term potential in the AI market.
- CoreWeave Acquisition: Wood bought shares of CoreWeave as its stock fell about 50%, and despite the absence of recent earnings reports, the company's strong demand for AI workloads and triple-digit revenue growth indicate a positive outlook.
- Market Outlook: With the AI market projected to reach trillions of dollars, Wood's investment decisions reflect not only a keen insight into short-term fluctuations but also a strong confidence in the future of technological advancements.
See More
