Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Truck Industry: The Trump administration's tariffs have increased manufacturing costs for the U.S. heavy-duty truck industry, leading companies to consider sourcing more components from Mexico under the USMCA to reduce costs.
Cost Disadvantages for U.S. Manufacturers: U.S. truck manufacturers face a 3% cost premium due to tariffs on imported materials compared to USMCA-compliant models built in Mexico, disadvantaging them against competitors like Daimler and Traton.
USMCA Compliance and Production Trends: The USMCA allows duty-free movement of goods between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada if certain regional sourcing rules are met, with forecasts indicating an 11% production dip in the truck industry by 2026.
Potential Changes from Commerce Department Probe: The U.S. Commerce Department is investigating whether imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks threaten national security, which could lead to new tariffs or exemptions affecting production dynamics.
Wall Street analysts forecast PCAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PCAR is 109.25 USD with a low forecast of 90.00 USD and a high forecast of 133.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast PCAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PCAR is 109.25 USD with a low forecast of 90.00 USD and a high forecast of 133.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 123.560
Low
90.00
Averages
109.25
High
133.00
Current: 123.560
Low
90.00
Averages
109.25
High
133.00
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Equal Weight
maintain
$106 -> $119
2026-01-23
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Price Target
$106 -> $119
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich raised the firm's price target on Paccar to $119 from $106 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reiterates its positive outlook for the Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services space heading into earnings. Wells argues the Machinery supply-driven recovery is broadening to new equipment, non-residential lead indicators are accelerating, and cash conversion is improving.
JPMorgan
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$108 -> $133
2025-12-19
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$108 -> $133
2025-12-19
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan upgraded Paccar to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $133, up from $108. Following the latest Section 232 proclamation that went into effect on November 1, the majority of Paccar's tariff-related headwinds faced this year to be offset next year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes this will bring margin recovery in 2026 while Paccar returns to positive pricing and volume growth. It sees a "multi-year share gain opportunity" post Section 232 for the company.
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Citi
Kyle Menges
Neutral
maintain
$105 -> $115
2025-12-11
Reason
Citi
Kyle Menges
Price Target
$105 -> $115
2025-12-11
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi analyst Kyle Menges raised the firm's price target on Paccar to $115 from $105 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated models in the machinery group as part of its 2026 outlook. Citi sees value in the space and has the most conviction in construction and mining growth entering next year. The agriculture and truck markets could remain challenged in the near-term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
initiated
$106
2025-11-13
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$106
2025-11-13
initiated
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Paccar with an Equal Weight rating and $106 price target. While positive on compounding parts profits and on truck unit profitability bottoming in October, the firm says the risk-reward "seems balanced" on a mid-cycle valuation.
About PCAR
PACCAR Inc is a multinational company operating in three principal industry segments. The Truck segment includes the design, manufacture and distribution of light-, medium- and heavy-duty commercial trucks. Heavy-duty trucks have a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of over 33,000 lbs (Class 8) in North America and over 16 metric tons in Europe and South America. Medium-duty trucks have a GVW ranging from 19,500 to 33,000 lbs (Class 6 to 7) in North America, and in Europe, light- and medium-duty trucks range between 6 and 16 metric tons. Trucks are configured with the engine in front of cab (conventional) or cab-over-engine (COE). The Parts segment includes the distribution of aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment includes finance and leasing products and services provided to customers and dealers. Its finance and leasing activities are principally related to the Company’s products and associated equipment.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
