U.S. Stock Futures Decline as Market Awaits Fed Rate Cut Decision
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 10 2025
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Source: Newsfilter
- Rate Cut Expectations: Traders are pricing in an 89.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis-point rate cut at 2 p.m. ET today, which could lower borrowing costs to support the labor market but may also heighten inflation concerns.
- Lack of Economic Data: The absence of fresh economic data following the recent government shutdown, coupled with uncertainty over the Fed's leadership next year, adds to policymakers' challenges, potentially impacting future monetary policy directions.
- Volatile Index Performance: As of 5:33 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis fell by 80 points, S&P 500 E-minis dropped by 10 points, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis decreased by 59 points, reflecting cautious market sentiment ahead of the upcoming rate decision.
- Earnings Reports Impact: This week will see earnings reports from major AI-related companies, including Oracle and Broadcom, and market reactions to these reports could further influence stock market trends, especially amid uncertainty surrounding Fed policies.
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Analyst Views on ORCL
Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ORCL is 309.59 USD with a low forecast of 180.00 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
34 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 169.010
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
Current: 169.010
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
About ORCL
Oracle Corporation offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. The Company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware and service. Its cloud and license business is engaged in the sale, marketing and delivery of its enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings, and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. Its hardware business provides infrastructure technologies including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments. Its services business provides services to customers and partners to help maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle applications and infrastructure technologies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Oracle's Cloud Market Share Growth and Financial Outlook
- Cloud Market Share Increase: Oracle's focus on high-performance computing has raised its cloud market share from 2% in 2024 to 3%, showcasing a competitive edge in a $944 billion industry, with expectations for further growth by 2026.
- Strong Financial Performance: For the first half of fiscal 2026 ending November 30, 2025, Oracle's cloud segment generated over $15 billion in revenue, a 31% year-over-year increase, driving overall revenue to $31 billion with the cloud segment accounting for 49%.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts forecast a 17% revenue growth for fiscal 2026 and 29% for the following year, which could enhance Oracle's stock performance despite its current debt of $108 billion.
- Strategic Investment Returns: While Oracle's heavy investment in cloud infrastructure has increased its debt, its P/E ratio of 33 is close to the S&P 500 average of 31, indicating market confidence in its future growth prospects.
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Microsoft's Earnings Report Raises Investor Concerns
- Risk from OpenAI Dependence: Microsoft's remaining performance obligation stands at $625 billion, with $281 billion tied to contracts with OpenAI, indicating a heavy reliance on OpenAI, which poses a risk if it fails to fulfill its obligations, leaving Microsoft with costly infrastructure investments.
- Surging Capital Expenditures: Microsoft reported $37.5 billion in capital expenditures for the last quarter, with two-thirds allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs, raising concerns about cash flow pressure and investor skepticism regarding the returns on such high spending.
- Low AI Product Penetration: Microsoft 365 Copilot has only 15 million paid seats out of 450 million total paid seats for Microsoft 365, resulting in a penetration rate of just over 3%, indicating a reluctance among commercial customers to pay for AI products, which could signal trouble for the broader AI industry.
- Declining Cash Flow: The heavy investment in AI infrastructure has led to a decline in Microsoft's free cash flow in the most recent quarter, causing investor doubts about future returns on investment and contributing to a drop in stock price following the earnings report.
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