Retail Sales Concerns: Major U.S. retailers like Target and Home Depot are facing mixed sales and profit forecasts, raising doubts about the upcoming holiday shopping season's performance amid rising costs and subdued consumer spending.
Impact of Tariffs: The tariffs imposed by President Trump have negatively affected consumer sentiment and spending, with companies like Adidas and Levi Strauss planning to increase prices due to higher costs.
Consumer Behavior Insights: Economists note that while consumers remain interested in spending, they are cautious and not indulging, reflecting a shift in purchasing behavior influenced by inflation and economic uncertainty.
Market Performance: Despite a strong overall stock market, consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed, with companies like Lowe's acknowledging challenges from high borrowing costs and cautious consumer behavior in the latter half of the year.
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HD is 401.47 USD with a low forecast of 320.00 USD and a high forecast of 441.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
23 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HD is 401.47 USD with a low forecast of 320.00 USD and a high forecast of 441.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 381.030
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
Current: 381.030
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
TD Cowen
Max Rakhlenko
Buy
maintain
$410 -> $450
2026-01-20
New
Reason
TD Cowen
Max Rakhlenko
Price Target
$410 -> $450
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $450 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the hardlines group. Planet Fitness is TD's top idea, followed by Home Depot and O'Reilly Automotive.
Truist
Buy
maintain
$390 -> $405
2026-01-16
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$390 -> $405
2026-01-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $405 from $390 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, sales trends have remained stable in December despite more difficult comparisons, the firm added.
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Truist
Buy
maintain
$375 -> $390
2025-12-17
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$375 -> $390
2025-12-17
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $390 from $375 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing 2026 for Hardlines/Broadlines Consumer names. With some slower consumer trends in the second half of FY25 consumers will remain choiceful in their shopping patterns, with a continued focus on "Value", the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, Truist notes that with over $35 trillion of home equity essentially sitting on the sidelines and recent rate cuts, homeowners have a tremendous amount of "dry powder" to reinvest in the household's single biggest asset, adding that as long as existing home supply remains lean and home prices are flat-to-up, the firm remains bullish on the home improvement space.
DA Davidson
Buy
downgrade
$430 -> $407
2025-12-10
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$430 -> $407
2025-12-10
downgrade
Buy
Reason
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on Home Depot to $407 from $430 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its FY25 and FY26 guidance. The company is taking a prudent approach to 2026, though the management is actually more bullish with the log term algo once housing recovers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Home Depot's EPS outlook is still planned up mid-to-high single digits, but per the firm's conversations, that is more beatable than it was in the past, DA Davidson added.
About HD
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement specialty retailer. The Company offers an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, decor products, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products, in stores and online. It also provides various services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. The Company operates approximately 2,353 retail stores, over 800 branches and more than 325 distribution centers that directly fulfill customer orders across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico. Its stores average approximately 105,000 square feet of enclosed space, with approximately 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area. The Company serves two primary customer groups, including both do-it-yourself (DIY) and Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) customers and Professional Customers (Pros).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
