U.S. Beef Prices Surge as Inventories Hit Decades Low
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1d ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Inventory Constraints: U.S. beef inventories have plummeted to their lowest levels in decades, causing beef prices to surge sharply, despite resilient consumer demand for steaks and burgers, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance in the market.
- Price Forecasts: Evercore ISI projects that hamburger prices will rise about 15% in the first half of 2026, while steak prices are expected to increase by 5% to 15% depending on the cut, which will impose ongoing cost pressures on consumers and the restaurant industry.
- Industry Impact: Texas Roadhouse anticipates facing nearly 150 basis points of food cost deleverage in 2026, as approximately 50% of its commodity basket consists of beef, with key steak cuts like sirloin, ribeye, and filet expected to experience mid- to high-single- to double-digit inflation.
- Market Outlook: Analysts suggest that while beef inflation may finally end by late 2026, the high beef prices in the short term will continue to impact the profitability of several restaurant companies, particularly those unable to fully pass on costs to consumers.
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Analyst Views on TXRH
Wall Street analysts forecast TXRH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TXRH is 190.04 USD with a low forecast of 155.00 USD and a high forecast of 228.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 181.750
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
Current: 181.750
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
About TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a restaurant company operating predominantly in the casual dining segment. The Company maintains three restaurant concepts operating as Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers. Texas Roadhouse is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept offering an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. Bubba’s 33 is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept featuring scratch-made food for all with a little rock 'n' roll, ice-cold beer, and signature cocktails. Its menu features burgers, pizza, wings, sandwiches and others. Its Jaggers is a fast-casual restaurant concept offering burgers, hand-breaded chicken sandwiches and chicken tenders, made-to-order fresh salads, and hand-spun milkshakes. Jaggers offer drive-thru, carry-out, and dine-in service options. It operates approximately 780 restaurants system-wide in 49 states, one United States territory, and 10 foreign countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Texas Roadhouse to Release Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Texas Roadhouse announced it will release its Q4 2025 financial results on February 19, 2026, after market close, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Details: Following the earnings release, Texas Roadhouse will hold a conference call at 5:00 PM ET, providing a live webcast to enhance investor engagement and timely communication of company performance.
- Global Business Expansion: Since its founding in 1993, Texas Roadhouse has grown to over 810 restaurants across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten foreign countries, showcasing its strong growth potential in the casual dining sector.
- Investor Relations Support: The company offers multiple access options for investors to join the conference call, including dedicated and international dialing, ensuring global investors can easily obtain information and participate in discussions.
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U.S. Beef Prices Surge as Inventories Hit Decades Low
- Inventory Constraints: U.S. beef inventories have plummeted to their lowest levels in decades, causing beef prices to surge sharply, despite resilient consumer demand for steaks and burgers, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance in the market.
- Price Forecasts: Evercore ISI projects that hamburger prices will rise about 15% in the first half of 2026, while steak prices are expected to increase by 5% to 15% depending on the cut, which will impose ongoing cost pressures on consumers and the restaurant industry.
- Industry Impact: Texas Roadhouse anticipates facing nearly 150 basis points of food cost deleverage in 2026, as approximately 50% of its commodity basket consists of beef, with key steak cuts like sirloin, ribeye, and filet expected to experience mid- to high-single- to double-digit inflation.
- Market Outlook: Analysts suggest that while beef inflation may finally end by late 2026, the high beef prices in the short term will continue to impact the profitability of several restaurant companies, particularly those unable to fully pass on costs to consumers.
Continue Reading