U.S. Automotive Industry Faces 2026 Challenges with Sales Projected at 16.3 Million Units

Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space, as well as which stocks in these sectors that the best analysts on Wall Street are saying to buy and sell.From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla, Wall Street's newest darling Rivian, traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GMand Fordto the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with "Charged," a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.Clickto check out Tesla's recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.AUTONOMOUS CAR INSURANCE:Lemonadeannounced the launch of Lemonade Autonomous Car insurance, a product designed for self-driving cars, starting with Tesla FSD, or full self-driving.. The new offering cuts per-mile rates for FSD-engaged driving by approximately 50%, reflecting reduced risk during autonomous operation. The launch is the result of a technical collaboration with Tesla, giving Lemonade access to vehicle data that was previously unavailable. Data captured feeds into Lemonade's usage-based risk prediction models to uniquely distinguish between autonomous and human driving, as well as predict risk based on the autonomous software version installed in the car. Lemonade supports intermittent use of FSD, as well as households with a mix of Teslas and standard non-FSD vehicles from other manufacturers, all under one policy. The product will begin rolling out in Arizona on January 26 and in Oregon a month later.BASIC AUTOPILOT:Tesla has officially pulled Basic Autopilot as a standard feature for new Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in North America, thus forcing new buyers to subscribe to the $99 per month Supervised Full Self-Driving package to access lane-keeping features that used to be free, Electrek's Fred Lambert. The Basic Autopilot suite, which had been included in every Tesla vehicle for nearly seven years, consisted of Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer, and under the new 2026 structure, Autosteer has been removed, the author notes.ROBOTAXI:Tesla CEO Elon Muskvia X that, "Just started Tesla Robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car. Congrats to the @Tesla_AI team! If you're interested in solving real-world AI, which is likely to lead to AGI imo, join Tesla AI. Solving real-world AI for Optimus will be 100X harder than cars."MANUFACTURING FACILITY:Rockwell Automationannounced a deepened collaboration with Lucidto support the automaker's expanding manufacturing facility in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The facility, located in King Abdullah Economic City, marks the country's first vehicle manufacturing site. Lucid will deploy Rockwell Automation's enterprise software solutions, including its FactoryTalk manufacturing execution system software, to manage and optimize production operations across all major shops: general assembly, paint, stamping, body, and powertrain. The FactoryTalk MES platform will provide Lucid with real-time visibility, traceability, and control across its operations. In addition to software, Rockwell's local team in Saudi Arabia will deliver instructor-led and virtual training programs.WORKFORCE REDUCTION:In a regulatory filing on Friday, Enphasenotified employees the company will be reducing headcount and moving certain functions to cost-efficient regions, affecting less than 6% of its workforce or approximately 160 employees. The company estimates that it will incur approximately $4.6M in restructuring and asset impairment charges, of which approximately $4.2M will be expected to be incurred in the first quarter of 2026 and approximately $3.7M will be total cash expenditures. The estimated impact of charges related to the plan is expected to be approximately $3.8M in employee severance and benefits, $0.7M in asset impairment charges and $0.1M related to office closures. The company expects to reduce its non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $70M-$75M a quarter starting from the third quarter of 2026. The actions associated with employee restructuring under the plan are expected to be substantially complete within the first half of 2026, subject to local laws.LIMITED DOWNSIDE RISK:Citi analyst Vikram Bagri upgraded Enphase Energy to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $37, up from $31. The firm sees limited downside risk in the shares. Additional downside would be driven by continued market share loss for Enphase, which seems unlikely, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company's risks are more skewed to the upside at current share levels, Citi contends.TOP RENEWABLE PICK:Citi replaced First Solarwith Generacas the firm's top renewables pick heading into the Q4 reports. NuScale Poweris Citi's least preferred name. The firm expects Generac to beat estimates and upped its outlook amid "multiple positive catalysts," which include its datacenter backlog, quantifying capacity expansion and the winter storms. Citi believes First Solar could guide below consensus estimates for 2026 due to lower volumes and higher costs.

Lemonade's (LMND) launch of autonomous car insurance tied to Tesla's (TSLA) full self-driving system marks a meaningful validation of autonomous driving by the insurance industry, with pricing that reflects lower risk for FSD-driven miles and discounts of up to 50%, Morgan Stanley tells investors in a research note. This external endorsement strengthens Tesla's value proposition, could accelerate FSD adoption, and supports an Equal Weight rating with a $425 price target on the shares, the firm says.