Union Pacific's Q4 2025 Earnings Preview

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

UNP+1.24%

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: 1h ago

0mins

Source: seekingalpha

Earnings Expectations: Union Pacific's projected non-GAAP EPS of $2.86 for Q4 2025 falls short by $0.01, indicating pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
Revenue Performance: The anticipated revenue of $6.09 billion misses the market expectation of $6.12 billion, reflecting weak transportation demand that may limit future business growth.
Merger Outlook: While the merger with Norfolk Southern is seen as a potential upside catalyst, analysts generally believe it will not significantly improve Union Pacific's financial condition, potentially impacting its long-term strategic planning.
Market Reaction: The earnings miss has led to a cautious market outlook on Union Pacific's future performance, which may result in increased stock price volatility and affect the company's competitive position in the industry.

UNP

$232.805+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on UNP

Wall Street analysts forecast UNP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UNP is 265.27 USD with a low forecast of 245.00 USD and a high forecast of 289.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Analyst Rating

9 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 230.890

Low

245.00

Averages

265.27

High

289.00

Current: 230.890

Low

245.00

Averages

265.27

High

289.00

Wolfe Research

Peer Perform

Outperform

upgrade

$245

2026-01-08

Reason

Wolfe Research

Price Target

$245

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

upgrade

Peer Perform

Outperform

Reason

Wolfe Research upgraded Wabtec (WAB) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $245 price target. The firm upgraded the shares as part of its 2026 outlook for the transport group. Wabtec's growth will accelerate in 2026 following a couple of larger acquisitions, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wolfe says the recent Union Pacific (UNP) merger application suggests more upside potential for Wabtec from the merger than originally expected. It also is confident in the company's ability to pass through tariff costs.

RBC Capital

Outperform

downgrade

$287 -> $280

2025-12-18

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$287 -> $280

2025-12-18

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Union Pacific to $280 from $287 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q4 for Class 1 Railroads. The firm is updating its models with refreshed estimates reflecting carload trends, management commentary at conferences, and its own channel checks, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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BofA

Buy

maintain

$260 -> $266

2025-12-18

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$260 -> $266

2025-12-18

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Union Pacific to $266 from $260 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm lowered its Q4 EPS estimate 2% to $2.80, which is below the Street's $2.93 view, and holds its 2026 EPS estimate at $12.65 given sustained "solid" volumes, but says "none of this will matter by report date" with all eyes on Friday, when Union Pacific is set to release its 4,000+ page Merger Application with the Surface Transportation Board. The firm has increased its target multiple half a turn given potential for accelerating operating leverage and an upper single digit three-year EPS CAGR target, the analyst noted.

Barclays

Overweight

maintain

$270 -> $285

2025-12-16

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$270 -> $285

2025-12-16

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on Union Pacific to $285 from $270 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says "weak" industrial growth and travel demand volatility could persist for a fourth consecutive year in 2026. As such, it recommends stocks with "idiosyncratic opportunities" in the North America airlines and transportation group.

About UNP

Union Pacific Corporation, through its principal operating company, Union Pacific Railroad Company, connects over 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. It maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers to move freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada, and Mexico. The railroad’s diversified business mix includes bulk, industrial, and premium. Its Bulk shipments consist of grain and grain products, fertilizer, food and refrigerated, and coal and renewables. The Industrial shipments consist of several categories, including construction, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products (primarily waste, salt, and roofing), metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases (LPG), soda ash, and sand. Its Premium shipments include finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.