UBS Reports SANDS CHINA LTD's 4Q25 EBITDA Falls Short; Maintains Neutral Rating
Macau EBITDA Performance: Las Vegas Sands reported a Macau adjusted property EBITDA of USD608 million for 4Q25, a 6% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of USD628 million when adjusted for VIP hold.
Management's Outlook: The company's management reaffirmed its target for annual property EBITDA in Macau at USD2.7 billion, citing improved asset utilization and effective marketing strategies as key drivers for gaming revenue growth.
Market Reaction: CLSA reported that Sands China Ltd's 4Q25 EBITDA missed expectations, leading to a decrease in stock value by 7.909%, with a neutral rating and a target price set at HKD22.4.
Short Selling Activity: There was significant short selling activity on Sands China Ltd, amounting to $123.30 million, with a short selling ratio of 16.754%.
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JPM Projects SANDS CHINA LTD Will Increase DPS to HKD1 This Year; Maintains Overweight Rating
4Q25 Performance: Sands China Ltd reported weaker-than-expected results for 4Q25, with a margin decline attributed to business mix, poor mass-hold, and rising operational expenses, leading JPMorgan to adjust its EBITDA forecast down by about 3%.
Stock Price Reaction: Despite Sands' stock price dropping 10% over the past month, JPMorgan views this reaction as excessive, citing seasonal factors and non-recurring issues as the main reasons for the weak performance.
Future Outlook: Haitong International maintains an "Outperform" rating on Sands China, expecting market share growth and a doubling of the annual dividend per share (DPS) to HKD1, which would yield 5.4% at current prices.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan has rated Sands China Ltd as "Overweight," lowering the target price from HKD23 to HKD22, while projecting progressive dividend growth to over HKD1.5 by 2028.
G Sachs Research: January GGR Exceeds Expectations; 1Q GGR Projected to Increase 17% Year-over-Year
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 24% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion, reaching 91% of the 2019 level, driven by a healthy increase in mainland Chinese visitors.
Impact of Events on Gaming Demand: Goldman Sachs believes that the upcoming Winter Olympic Games will not significantly affect gaming demand, while the World Cup may impact monthly revenue by no more than 5%.
SANDS CHINA LTD Financials: Despite reporting lower-than-expected EBITDA in 4Q25 due to one-off expenses and a shift towards lower-margin segments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SANDS CHINA LTD.
Outlook for Other Companies: Goldman Sachs anticipates solid 4Q25 results for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with expected EBITDA increases of 28% and 8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and reiterates Buy ratings for these stocks.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
G Sachs Adjusts Price Target for SANDS CHINA LTD to $23.2; 4Q25 Results Fall Short of Expectations
4Q25 Results Overview: SANDS CHINA LTD reported a slight miss in its 4Q25 results, with adjusted EBITDA growing 1% QoQ to USD608 million, below market expectations of USD610-640 million.
Future Outlook: The company's management is optimistic about Macau's gaming industry for 2026, forecasting EBITDA margins of 31% and 31.4% for 2026 and 2027, with property EBITDA targets close to mid-term goals but below 2019 levels.
Brokerage Adjustments: Haitong International maintained an Outperform rating but lowered EBITDA forecasts for 2026-27 by 4-5% and reduced the target price from HKD24.2 to HKD23.2 due to lower EBITDA margins.
Dividend Expectations: With no major capital expenditures anticipated in the coming years, SANDS CHINA LTD is likely to continue increasing dividends.
Haitong International Maintains Outperform Rating on Sands China Ltd; 4Q EBITDA Falls Short
Financial Performance: SANDS CHINA LTD reported a 16.2% year-over-year increase in net revenue for 4Q25, reaching USD2.058 billion, while adjusted property EBITDA grew by 6.5% to USD608 million.
Market Expectations: The company's net revenue met market expectations, but the adjusted property EBITDA fell short, leading Haitong International to maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of HKD22.3.
JPM Projects SANDS CHINA LTD Will Increase DPS to HKD1 This Year; Maintains Overweight Rating
4Q25 Performance: Sands China Ltd reported weaker-than-expected results for 4Q25, with a margin decline attributed to business mix, poor mass-hold, and rising operational expenses, leading JPMorgan to adjust its EBITDA forecast down by about 3%.
Stock Price Reaction: Despite Sands' stock price dropping 10% over the past month, JPMorgan views this reaction as excessive, citing seasonal factors and non-recurring issues as the main reasons for the weak performance.
Future Outlook: Haitong International maintains an "Outperform" rating on Sands China, expecting market share growth and a doubling of the annual dividend per share (DPS) to HKD1, which would yield 5.4% at current prices.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan has rated Sands China Ltd as "Overweight," lowering the target price from HKD23 to HKD22, while projecting progressive dividend growth to over HKD1.5 by 2028.
G Sachs Research: January GGR Exceeds Expectations; 1Q GGR Projected to Increase 17% Year-over-Year
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 24% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion, reaching 91% of the 2019 level, driven by a healthy increase in mainland Chinese visitors.
Impact of Events on Gaming Demand: Goldman Sachs believes that the upcoming Winter Olympic Games will not significantly affect gaming demand, while the World Cup may impact monthly revenue by no more than 5%.
SANDS CHINA LTD Financials: Despite reporting lower-than-expected EBITDA in 4Q25 due to one-off expenses and a shift towards lower-margin segments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SANDS CHINA LTD.
Outlook for Other Companies: Goldman Sachs anticipates solid 4Q25 results for GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA, with expected EBITDA increases of 28% and 8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, and reiterates Buy ratings for these stocks.
M Stanley Predicts 18% Year-Over-Year Growth in MO 1Q GGR, Prefers GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD
Macau's GGR Performance: In January 2026, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 24% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, reaching MOP22.6 billion, surpassing market expectations according to Morgan Stanley.
February Growth Expectations: The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday is anticipated to boost February's GGR, with a projected year-on-year growth of 22%.
1Q26 GGR Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in Macau's GGR for the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from a low base in early 2025.
Stock Recommendations: The broker favors stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, and Melco Resorts, all rated Overweight, while MGM China is rated Neutral and SJM Holdings is rated Underweight.
SANDS CHINA LTD Rises Over 4% Despite Market Trends, Following Strong January GGR from MO
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's January Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.633 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase and surpassing market expectations by about 5%.
Stock Market Reactions: Major gaming companies like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw their stock prices rise, with Sands China up 4.58% and Galaxy Entertainment up 0.95%, despite initial declines.
Market Forecasts: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and CLSA predict continued growth in Macau's GGR, with expectations of an 18% year-over-year increase in the first quarter and potential upside risks to annual growth forecasts.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling statistics for various companies, indicating varying levels of market confidence, with SJM Holdings showing a notably high short selling ratio of 29.649%.
G Sachs Adjusts Price Target for SANDS CHINA LTD to $23.2; 4Q25 Results Fall Short of Expectations
4Q25 Results Overview: SANDS CHINA LTD reported a slight miss in its 4Q25 results, with adjusted EBITDA growing 1% QoQ to USD608 million, below market expectations of USD610-640 million.
Future Outlook: The company's management is optimistic about Macau's gaming industry for 2026, forecasting EBITDA margins of 31% and 31.4% for 2026 and 2027, with property EBITDA targets close to mid-term goals but below 2019 levels.
Brokerage Adjustments: Haitong International maintained an Outperform rating but lowered EBITDA forecasts for 2026-27 by 4-5% and reduced the target price from HKD24.2 to HKD23.2 due to lower EBITDA margins.
Dividend Expectations: With no major capital expenditures anticipated in the coming years, SANDS CHINA LTD is likely to continue increasing dividends.
Haitong International Maintains Outperform Rating on Sands China Ltd; 4Q EBITDA Falls Short
Financial Performance: SANDS CHINA LTD reported a 16.2% year-over-year increase in net revenue for 4Q25, reaching USD2.058 billion, while adjusted property EBITDA grew by 6.5% to USD608 million.
Market Expectations: The company's net revenue met market expectations, but the adjusted property EBITDA fell short, leading Haitong International to maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of HKD22.3.
