The current value of a $1,000 investment in Costco made five years ago.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 25 2025
0mins
Source: CNBC
Costco's Stock Performance: Costco's share prices have nearly tripled over the past five years, yielding a total return of 188%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 100% return in the same period, driven by strong sales and a successful membership model.
Market Position and Expansion Plans: Despite trading at a premium, Costco is well-positioned to endure economic downturns due to its focus on essential goods and plans to open about 30 new warehouses annually, with a mix of locations in the U.S. and abroad.
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Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COST is 1061 USD with a low forecast of 769.00 USD and a high forecast of 1205 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 960.780
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
Current: 960.780
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Costco's Revenue Continues to Climb
- Revenue Growth Drivers: Costco is expected to continue its revenue growth through new warehouse openings and same-store sales increases, with a 6.4% rise in same-store sales in Q1 FY2026 and an additional 7% in December, indicating strong market demand.
- Strong Market Position: With a current market cap of $434 billion and a 170% stock price increase over the past five years, Costco holds a dominant position in the retail sector, poised for further market share expansion in the next five years.
- Membership Growth Support: The company adds new membership accounts each quarter, driving spending activity, with net income climbing 102% from FY2020 to FY2025, reflecting increased customer loyalty and spending potential.
- Valuation Pressure: Despite strong fundamentals, Costco's high price-to-earnings ratio of 52.7—almost double that of the S&P 500—may lead to valuation corrections over the next five years, potentially impacting stock performance.
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Costco's Stock Up 170% in Five Years, Eyes Future Growth
- Strong Market Performance: Costco's stock has surged 170% over the past five years, reaching a market cap of $434 billion, reflecting its robust competitiveness in the retail sector and investor confidence.
- Sustained Growth Potential: Management plans to open 25 to 30 new warehouses annually, indicating that the company is set to expand its footprint in both the U.S. and international markets, thereby driving revenue growth in the coming years.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, same-store sales increased by 6.4%, with a further rise of 7% in December, demonstrating strong business resilience even amid declining consumer confidence.
- Potential for Trillion-Dollar Club: Costco's market cap needs to rise by 129% by 2031; while it has grown 172% in the past five years, its high price-to-earnings ratio of 52.7 may pressure future growth, making a ten-year timeline for this milestone more realistic.
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